Arsenal v Fulham

The top defense in the Premier League will face Martin Jol’s high-powered offense in gameweek 11. Long-time readers will know how frequently we tout the cost-effective defensive options and both sides here are deep in the defensive ranks with several inexpensive selections on either side. For that reason we have split this match differently and we’re looking at the players by position.

Defensively, we’re not trusting anyone. With Arsenal having been blanked only once at home in the League and Fulham sitting on 21 goals to day, both sets of defenders are likely to concede at least one. Only 3.3% of fantasy premier league managers own Gunners’ ‘keeper Mannone and 4.9% of managers own Mark Schwarzer. We do not advocate selling either or any of the defenders on these sides but we’re not expecting much from any of them, including the potentially out-of-position Chris Baird.

More can be made of the midfield and forwards with recent success for Dimitar Berbatov – one goal and one assist in the last two BPL fixtures combined – and the string of consecutive 90′ for Giroud stretching four matches back to October 6. Both are solid options but we can not be dissuaded from our Santi-based infatuation. His late strike against United saved an otherwise poor two weeks of fantasy premier league tips in which we heavily touted the playmaker. His 35 chances created are second in the BPL. And he maintains his dedication to the faux-hawk. We’re sold.

Captains Choices: Santi (confidence 8/10) Giroud (7/10); Berbatov (7/10)

Everton v Sunderland

We’d not have thought Marouane Fellaini would have been on a hattrick for the last 20′ of last weekends match at Craven Cottage, but we’re not shy about advertising our admiration for the class quaff on the Belgian midfielder. A late Steve Sidwell goal stole back a point for the Cottagers and overshadowed a fine performance for Fellaini who hadn’t scored in the League since September 22. A look at our friends EPLIndex.com shows that Fellaini is level-fifth in the League after his GW 10 brace. He remains an excellent fantasy premier league option, but we’re holding in our position that Steve Pienaar is the better option for the price over the course of the season.

Both Nikica Jelavic and Kevin Mirallas are playing well with Mirallas assisting one of his countryman’s goals against Fulham. The duo a left in the shade by Fellaini – Top Toffees goalscorer with 5 – Leighton Baines – Top Premier League creator with 44 chances created and Steve Pienaar – 26 crosses, 25 chances created, 3 assists and 46% success from 13 dribbles.

We cover Sunderland a touch the latest Up The Tweets! and will cover the only important member of the Black Cats again now:

Sunderland are a one-man show and unfortunately that one man does not create many chances of his own. Steven Fletcher has scored five goals, still level-fifth in the Barclays Premier League, but has not found the net in four gameweeks having failed to score in October. In the Top 50 most creative players in the BPL only one Black Cat finds his name – Seb Larsson. Larsson’s 13 chances created are level-44th in the BPL with Baggies forward Peter Odemwingie and just one more than players like Leon Osman — fourth among Toffees — and Andy Carroll — who has played 443′ in the League this term. We love Fletch, but he is playing in a side that lacks the creativity to provide him with consistent opportunities in front of goal.

Captains Choices: Jelavic (8/10) Baines (7/10); Fletcher (6/10)

Reading v Norwich

Norwich have emphatically stated their newfound dedication to defense with cleansheets in two of their last three. Both of those came at home and the Canaries have recorded all three of their cleansheets at Carrow Road. Unfortunately, this is a side that is dealing with a number of injuries at the back.

At this point, we can not advocate owning any of the Canaries because of the combination of low fantasy premier league points and high cost for owning the marginal options. Even Grant Holt is an expensive luxury at £6.0m for a player who has three goals, one assist and three bonus points including a scant four points over the past two BPL fixtures combined. This is one of those fixtures where everyone gets healthy and we  expect much vitriol to be spit our direction from the large segment of the World population who both own Robert Snodgrass  in FPL – 0.9% selected – and read out site.

The Royals are an even worse option and the only fantasy premier league tip left is sell anyone not named Jobi McAnuff. He is the only player in the squad with more than 25 FPL points. Granted, Reading have played nine fixtures, not 10 most sides have played in the League, but his team-leading 33 points still have an average return of 3.66 points per match. A four match run of Norwich, Everton – both home – Wigan and Aston Villa – both away – still are not enough to justify ownership of Brian McDermott’s side.

Captains Choices: Holt (8/10, nearly certain to score); McAnuff (6/10)

Southampton v Swansea

Quick match recap ripped straight from Monday’s backpage – Rickie Lambert recaptures form to give Saints second Premier League victory. With Michel Vorm still out injured and Southampton having scored nine of their 14 goals in their five home fixtures we expect that Michael Laudrup’s side will extend their run without a cleansheet to nine. Lambert and Lallana are frequently mentioned as the only Saints worth owning on the strength of their Opta stats - specifically chances created. However, the promoted side have struggled to find the goal in recent weeks with only two goals in their last three BPL fixtures. This match has a modest chance of ended 0-0, but an equal chance of ending 3-2 and we’re comfortable starting Lambert over players like Demba Ba – injury concern – or Steven Fletcher – at Everton.

Michu continues to draw a record number of Twitter questions and we continue to advocate owning him if you’ve invested and not paying the current price. The £7.4m-rated midfielder is the best striking option in the Swans squad. His ownership is still at 33.6% in the Fantasy Premier League and we can not see enough potential to own him at his current price although we’re certain that any chance this side has of scoring runs directly from Wayne Routledge to Michu. And keep this in mind:

10 – Southampton are the first team in Premier League history to trail in all of the first 10 matches of the season. Unwanted.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 10, 2012

Captains Choices: Lambert (7/10) Lallana (5/10); Michu (8/10) Routledge (6/10)

Stoke City v QPR

Arsenal can lay claim to the top defense in the Premier League after 10 weeks of play. But it is Tony Pulis’ Potters who have the best home defensive form with a single goal allowed in four tries. The three clean sheets at home are a remarkable feat when one considers that they have only had four home League fixtures and that no side in the BPL has posted better than four clean sheets this term. Fantasy premier league tips can tend to over-react to small samples, runs of form and big names performance. However, it is worth noting that Shawcross, Huth, Cameron, Wilkinson and the injured Wilson have combined to post three clean sheets in their past five BPL fixtures. We raise the issue because, including the Rangers fixture, Pulis will have the benefit of managing from the home in three of the next four League fixtures as Stoke hosts QPR, Fulham and Newcastle. FFC is actually the third-highest scoring side in the League at this time. We’ve lifted a bit of news from the Premier League:

Rory Delap is out and is due to undergo a hernia operation next week and Michael Owen is unavailable with a hamstring injury. They join Marc Wilson, who is likely to be unavailable until February after fracturing his left fibula.

But we’re not focused on that – we’re focused on Peter Crouch. The lanky, lanky, lanky forward will have all angles working against  a Rangers side without a win in the League and one clean sheet in 10 tries. The England man will be looking to break a scoreless streak in the League that stretches back to September. Crouch does have four goals, and has scored more than half of Stoke’s seven. Only three players have scored in the League for this side and we trust that a) there will be at least two goals scored by the Potters and a Crouch brace has kept him in our side this weekend. Crouch has only eight goals on target, with four goals, and his 18 shots are level-Top in the squad. However, there is one stat that we’re basing this play on – Crouch has seen eight clear-cut chances in 10 games. He is all but certain to see at least one clear-cut chance in this match. He has scored three and squandered five. With little luck he could see and score two clear-cut chances against a sub-par defensive side.

We flat out do not care about QPR for Fantasy Premier League. Their highest scoring FPL player, Bobby Zamora, has scored 10 points in the last five gameweeks. Their second-highest FPL scoring player is a goalkeeper with an o.g. scored and a loan cleansheet coming in his debut some seven gameweeks ago.

Captains Choices: Crouch (9/10) Walters (7/10)

Wigan v West Brom

15 goals for West Brom and 11 allowed while Wigan has scored 11 and conceded 16. We’ve run out of superlatives to describe the passion with with Steve Clarke’s side has played. We constantly tweet stats for Long, Odemwingie, Lukaku and Yacob. James Morrison, while dealing with a knock, remains a FantasyGaffer favourite for his ability to create chances – 17 this term – and we do not anticipate much changing once he is fit. Three of the next four Baggies matches are away from The Hawthorns where they have posted an 0-2-2 record with three goals for and seven against. That is scant comfort for fantasy premier league managers expecting returns from the most selected Latics — Franco di Santo with 2.8% and Maynor Figueroa with 4.6%.

Consecutive wins over West Ham and Tottenham have Roberto Martinez’s side sitting on 11 points and on pace to safely retain their Premier League status for another term. Shaun Maloney, £5.0m, and the aforementioned Figueroa, £4.5m, are inexpensive enough to round out the fifth spot in a defense or midfield most weeks and this fixture is an opportunity to start them over similar discount options facing more difficult opposition – for example Fulham midfielders playing Arsenal or the Villan’s defense attempting to contain the Red Devils potent attack.

Captains Choices: Maloney (5/10); Long (6/10) Odemwingie (5/10)

Aston Villa v Manchester United

A number of players have homecomings of sorts with none more poignant than Ashley Young’s return to Villa Part. Following the high-profile defections of Young to Old Trafford and Stewart Downing to Anfield, Villa has been left to struggle to stay up at the end of the season. While Newcastle has thrived following the departures of Carroll and Nolan, the arrival of Paul Lambert has only now begun to pay dividends and the emergence of Christian Benteke is likely going to intermission while Man United visit.

Young has 90′ in consecutive BPL matches for the first time this season and will want to see his name on Sir Alex Ferguson’s squad sheet this weekend. The £8.2m-rated midfielder is priced well and has been selected in 1.2% of fantasy premier league sides. While we can not advocate owning him over players like Steven Gerrard – 27 chances created – or Gareth Bale – 23 chances created – his price makes him an attractive option for FPL managers who’ve freed up capital with low-priced options like Wayne Routledge, Raheem Sterling and Mark Noble.

Captains Choices: van Persie (10/10) Rooney (9/10) Young (6/10); Benteke (5/10)

Manchester City v Tottenham

City had their European Cup aspirations dashed by two quick Ajax goals in a match that featured everything we love and hate about Roberto Mancini’s side:

Yaya Toure and Sergio Aguero struck as City fought back from 2-0 down but the Barclays Premier League champions were forced to settle for a draw.

Neither club has any shortage of attacking players and we’re starting them all. David Silva and Benoit Assou-Ekotto remain out with injury and we expect that Aguero, Tevez and Defoe are the chosen strikers but it is the collection of midfielders we expect to lead the line for fantasy premier league managers. Yaya, Nasri, Bale, Dempsey and Lennon have the ability to dominate their defensive counterparts. We have it 3-3. There isn’t much to discuss, we all know the top players and their expectations. Unfortunately, the underlying numbers paint a picture exactly in line with what our eyes already know – leaving precious little analysis necessary. Stay tuned to our Twitter feed for Opta stats from this match following the final whistle.

Captains choices: Nasri (7/10) Tevez (7/10); Bale (8/10) Lennon (7/10)

Newcastle v West Ham

The Shola/Sammi line-up put in a yeoman’s shift midweek in the Europa League but are unlikely to earn the nod this weekend. There is the possibility with injuries possibly keeping Demba Ba on the training table. Ba continues to struggle with a knock that threatens to derail a massive season as the Senegalese striker is level-second in the scoring table with Luis Suarez (7) and just one off the pace set by Robin van Persie. After scoring in his 71′ outing against WBA, the forward was unable to continue long after the half and was withdrawn after 48′. West Ham have conceded only six in five away fixtures, showing a defensive fortitude that could keep them in the top half of the table come Boxing Day. The remainder of the usual suspects in the Magpies squad have their FPL value mitigated by the emotional anchoring we have to the returning Hammers duo.

Kevin Nolan and Andy Carroll return to St. James’ Gate and will have the chance to once more thrill the fans, though we rather expect that their scoring exploits will be met with less enthusiasm on this occasion  We’re not enamored with either teams defenses this gameweek. Understanding that we’ve written that many time this weekend and that fantasy premier league tips can not ignore the dearth of possible clean sheets this weekend

Captains Choices: Ben Arfa (7/10); Carroll (7/10) Nolan (5/10)

Chelsea v Liverpool

Fernando Torres will look to break his three match League drought against his old club with many Chelsea fans believing the Spaniard must lead the line if the club is to maintain a title challenge. Certainly, goals for El Nino are a key part of Roberto di Matteo’s tactics, but a cadre of young, explosive attacking-midfielders leaves less burden on Nando’s shoulders. The lighter burden may be what he needs and the added motivation of playing against a Liverpool side he left with considerable acrimony.

Juan Mata returned in the 3-2 win over Shakthar Donetsk and we expect he will lineup in the midfield once again. He, Oscar and Eden Hazard should retain their places despite the late heroics from Victor Moses who’s 90′ ensure the three points in the Blue’s Champions League match. Ashley Cole is a doubt while the side welcome back John Terry who was suspended for some reason. Sure he’s just lovely in person though.

For Brendan Rodgers LFC it will be another test to determine if they’re indeed a Top 4 side, or simply a once-great club at the start of another rebuilding cycle. While the side struggles to maintain their Premier League relevance, there are a number of exceptional FPL options. Luis Suarez remains one of the most dynamic attacking players in the Prem while captain Gerrard is fourth in the BPL with 27 chances created, three fewer than Suarez.

For some reason that escapes us, the £5.3m-rated Raheem Sterling is owned by only 15.9% of fantasy premier league managers. Fantasy premier league tip: buy him.

Captains Choices: Mata (7/10) Torres (6/10); Suarez (7/10) Gerrard (7/10)

For additional Fantasy Premier League tips, information, stats and analysis follow@FantasyGaffer.

Tweet

The Fantasy Premier League site is experiencing some difficulties and we’re using more statistics from EPL Index than normal. Our thanks to their Stats Centre – to subscribe use this link.

Manchester City 2-2 Ajax
Yaya Toure 22′
Sergio Aguero 74′

Manchester City starting XI: Hart; Nastasic Zabaleta Kompany Clichy; Nasri Garcia Barry Yaya; Tevez Aguero
Substitutes: Balotelli (Garcia 45′); Dzeko (Tevez 66′); Kolarov (Barry 85′)

While the result does nothing for Roberto Mancini’s side but stave off the inevitable, the goals for Yaya Toure and Sergio Aguero are a welcome site for a side with two goals in their previous three fixtures. In Barclays Premier League action, City was held scoreless against West Ham last time out and managed only one goal in their 1-0 home win over Swansea the weekend before. In the next two calender weeks City will face Spurs, Vila and Chelsea in the League and host Real Madrid in their penultimate Group Stage fixture. Carlos Tevez continues to earn minutes, with 66′ more in this fixture and the Argentine had scored the only goal for Mancini’s men in their previous 180′.

Although Manchester City had only scored one goal in their previous two League fixtures, some defensive frailties were papered over by a lesser class of opposition as they kept consecutive clean sheets for the first time this season. The consecutive clean sheets were only the second and third of their season. We still can not advocate owning any of the Citizens defenders as the combination of price, squad rotation and lack of defensive points — points from clean sheets — make owning the players a high-cost, high-risk proposition.

David Silva did not play again because of his injury. With the Spanish international still the leading provider of chances in the squad, his absent . According to Opta, Silva has created 21 chances, just ahead of Carlos Tevez (19), Yaya Toure (18) and Samir Nasri (17). The collection of exceptional attacking talent currently boasts only two players with better than two League goals this term: Eden Dzeko (5) and Tevez (4). Both are within the Top 10 in the BPL at the moment, but one of the few concerns EPL fantasy managers had at the start of the season dealt with City scoring goals. A brace in Europe is not a minor achievement but it will require dedication to build on it against a Spurs side that have held opponents to one goal or fewer in seven of their 10 BPL matches this term.

Schalke 04  2-2 Arsenal
Walcott 18′
Giroud 26′

Arsenal starting XI: Mannone; Sagna Vermaelen Mertesacker Koscielny; Arteta Wilshire; Santi Podolski Walcott; Giroud
Substitutes: Conquelin (Santi 90′); Andre Santos (Podolski 90′)

A return to the starting XI for Theo Walcott paid early dividends as the England winger put the Gunners ahead and looked lively. He has not earned enough minutes and this effort could pave the wave for Walcott to earn additional playing time. After sustaining a freak, and quite serious, injury on international duty, Walcott could do with a bit of luck. EPL fantasy managers may not have much incentive to buy him at this point, but his presence could well open lanes for Santi Cazorla and create more opportunities for Olivier Giroud.

Wenger did address the “Walcott Issue” after the match, but was rather non-committal on the whole affair, odd no?

Wenger refused to elaborate on his reluctance to hand Walcott a regular starting position despite his side’s indifferent form of late. “Theo did well, very well,” stated the Arsenal boss. “He had a positive attitude and was fresh as well. He was the only one you always felt could make a difference and it was no coincidence he had the chance in the final minute as he was still fresh.”

When quizzed on whether Walcott will get the chance he desires to play as an out and out striker, Wenger has this response: “A winger is a striker,” he suggested. “Giroud has Walcott and Podolski with him in this game. We scored two goals. We had more chances and played with three offensive midfielders as well.”

In the back, both Koscielny and Mertesacker both got the start here, and further confused the question of which defenders will be the first-choice defensive unit. The Gunners have kept one clean sheet in their past seven BPL fixtures and have won only one of their last three. We do not love the upcoming slate of fixtures with Fulham — third in the BPL in scoring with 21 goals for — and Tottenham 6th with 17 goals scored — next up in League play. While Andre Santos was a late substitute, he did not earn another start following poor showings against Shalke and Manchester United. Santos was not part of the side that allowed 5 to Reading in the 5-7 win in the Carling Cup, but he should be sixth or seventh choice in a side that boasts several top defensive options.

A fun screen shot from EPL Index – and they can be followed on Twitter @EPLIndex – shows the current TOP 10 most chances created in BPL play this term as of November 6 as Leighton Baines continues to set a breakneck pace which has yet to be matched.

For more fantasy EPL analysis, follow along @FantasyGaffer. EPL Fantasy managers can expect another post Wednesday or Thursday and Last Minute Tinkers to return late on Friday or perhaps early Saturday, as usual.

Tweet

@fantasygaffer Fletcher —> Berbatov/Jelavic?Or better ideas? I am open to better ideas.

— J. Jabaily-Blackburn (@beaglesongs) November 4, 2012

Sunderland are a one-man show and unfortunately that one man does not create many chances of his own. Steven Fletcher has scored five goals, still level-fifth in the Barclays Premier League, but has not found the net in four gameweeks having failed to score in October. In the Top 50 most creative players in the BPL only one Black Cat finds his name – Seb Larsson. Larsson’s 13 chances created are level-44th in the BPL with Baggies forward Peter Odemwingie and just one more than players like Leon Osman — fourth among Toffees — and Andy Carroll — who has played 443′ in the League this term. We love Fletch, but he is playing in a side that lacks the creativity to provide him with consistent opportunities in front of goal.

@fantasygaffer Tévez or Ba or RVP? (long term)

— Alvin. (@alvinsyn) November 4, 2012

With a goal, an assist or both in each of the last six Premier League fixtures, Robin van Persie has slowly begun to open a lead at the top of the Fantasy EPL scoring table. This is largely based on his ability to secure bonus points in these matches with eight of his 15 fantasy EPL bonus points coming in the last three League fixtures. The cost is extraordinary and so is the production. We’ve stated in the past that the return of Rooney provided an opportunity for goals to be shared more broadly across the Red Devil’s attacking legion and that has been the case. However, following their 0-1 loss to Everton on opening day Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have not scored fewer than a brace in nine League fixtures on the bounce including three or more in three of their past four.

Some fantasy EPL managers prefer to invest evenly across a position, or invest heavily in the midfield. However, managers who are willing to play a two-man front or can live with players like Shane Long (6.1) and Rickie Lambert (6.1) making up the remainder of their strike force would be wise to invest in the £13.5m-rated RvP — he is already 33.9% selected.

For a more prudent purchase, Carlos Tevez price makes a bit more fiscal sense and saves a massive £4.0m over his Dutch counterpart, though he is 42.3% selected leaving little room to make up ground on the league-leaders in your fantasy EPL mini-league.

@fantasygaffer midfielder with a value of 6?

— Talal Almeshal (@talmeshal) November 4, 2012

Inside the Top 20 midfielders for Fantasy EPL scoring there are five midfielders than meet this criteria — we’re presuming that the cap is £6m but in case we’re wrong here is a list of £6m-rated midfielders:

Ki, Lallana, Etherington, Dembele and Ramirez (SOU).

As for the five we’re discussing here they’re lead by Swansea’s Wayne Routledge £5.4m and his 47 points in Fantasy Premier League. The list is rounded out by Steve Sidwell (£5m, 39 FPL points), Kightly (£5.5m, 39 FPL points), Lallana (£6m, 39 FPL points) and Noble (£4.9m, 37 points).

We’re leading with Routledge because his 22 chances created are level with Juan Mata and two better than Mata’s teammate Eden Hazard. Michael Laudrup’s side lack a poacher to finish Routledge’s work but he is capable of a few big matches and is a capable fourth or fifth midfielder who can certainly be relied upon as an every-week starter for fantasy EPL managers who choose to invest heavily elsewhere – perhaps in van Persie – and need an inexpensive option.

Mark Noble is also worth a flier with 15 of his 18 chance created coming from set pieces. Set pieces are stable in terms of weekly creation but have resulted in few assists. In fact, he does not have an assist to his credit this term and has posted better than three points in only two of 10 tries with the highlight being a two-goal, 15 point outing in gameweek eight.

@fantasygaffer Baines,Davies and Maloney for Lallana,Riise and Jenkinson??Good move??

— saura bhattacharjee (@kenji_123) November 5, 2012

Hard to tell because a) which side is coming and which is going and b) without knowing which of these players would be relied upon to start week-to-week it is nearly impossible to judge the quality of the moves. To start, three moves means a cost and none of these players — aside from Baines — creates enough to warrant a -4 point hit. In a vacuum, the second trio has more depth and would provide several quality options that could each justify a place in the starting XI. Despite Adam Lallana’s 18 chances created and four fantasy EPL assists, the Saints midfielder does not provide excellent value with his £6.0m. He is a quality option who has provided consistent points and has a decent run of fixtures upcoming — Swansea (h), QPR (a), Newcastle (h) and Norwich (h) — but needs needs his side to score more than the two goals  they’ve scored over their past three fixtures.

@fantasygaffer only 20pts. this week! Defender wid CS nxt wk?

— George Siby (@mojo_geo) November 5, 2012

If the last question was difficult, this question is fucking impossible. We’ve said, predicting clean sheets is so difficult that you need to invest in inexpensive defenders and play for the long returns instead of chasing a clean sheet in any given week. That said, we’ve some interesting data for you below. In convenient and stylish bullet-point form:

• After 10 weeks, no team has more than four clean sheets
• Five teams have four cleansheet: Arsenal, Chelsea, Stoke City, West Brom and West Ham
• Only Reading and Southampton have failed to keep a clean sheet this season
• Chelsea, Everton, Fulham, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham and WBA have each been blanked only once
• Stoke City (5), Swansea (4) and Sunderland (4) are the teams held without a goal most frequently
• Five teams have scored fewer than 10 goals: Aston Villa, Norwich, QPR, Stoke City (8 each) and Sunderland (6)
• Three teams have allowed fewer than 10 goals: Arsenal (8), Manchester City and Sunderland (9)
• Three teams have scored more than Man City’s 18 goals: Man Utd (26), Chelsea (22) and Fulham (21)

For more check out @FantasyGaffer on Twitter and look to our Favourites on that site to find our most recent STATS tweets with Opta data courtesy of EPLIndex.com. Constant Fantasy EPL advice, even when you’d wish it would stop.

Tweet

Key Injuries: Clark

Chris Hughton’s Norwich put in a top shift against Arsenal a week ago to earn three unexpected points in a 1-0 victory. However, if there is one man who should be acutely aware of the Canaries defensive frailties it is former boss Paul Lambert, now managing Aston Villa. Lambert will have to once more decide between Christian Benteke and Darren Bent. We would be more interested if either striker had shown the ability to score this term. Additionally, one time FantasyGaffer favourites Barry Bannan and Charles N’Zogbia are not receiving enough playing time to justify owning in Fantasy Premier League. Bannan (38′ in last three BPL fixtures) and N’Zogbia (105′ in last six BPL fixtures) should not be owned at this point.

A quick fantasy premier league tip from Opta stats: NO Aston Villa player has created more than 11 chances (Darren Bent). Bannan (nine), Holman and Lowton (eight each) are the only players with more than seven chances created.

Grant Holt did net the loan Canaries goal against Arsenal. The captain has been very good this season, scoring in three on the bounce to raise his FPL total to 31 points. The £6m-rated striker leads the Norwich scoring table and is third on the squad in shots attempted with 13 — Robert Snodgrass (17) and Bradley Johnson (14).  Aston Villa have allowed 13 goals but only four in their three home games. It remains Snodgrass (hopefully back healthy and starting) and Holt — 14 and 10 chances created, respectively — as the first names to add to your Fantasy Premier League side from Hughton’s side. Both are squad players at best, but using them in this fixture should net modest returns.

Captains choice: Agbonlahor (4/10); Holt (5/10)

Arsenal v QPR

Key Injuries: Gibbs, Walcott; Fabio

If we write “Arsenal have the quality and tactics to put a handful past [insert GK here]” enough times, eventually it will be proved right. After a frustrating fixture against Norwich that saw the Gunners drop three points and fail to score, Fantasy Premier League managers are justifiably hesitant to trust Arsene Wenger’s side against another opponent perceived as weak. We’re not. We believe in this side, the tactics and the guaranteed playing time for Santi Cazorla (90′) and Lukas Podolski (65′ or so based on current track record) and like the Gunners to restore faith at The Emirates with a modest victory.

We are concerned about Arsenal’s defenses. We wrote about Andre Santos in our Champions League Recap, he is not up to the task and this side misses Kieran Gibbs. With Bacary Sagna perhaps back, Wenger may switch Jenkinson to the other side or could push one of Koscielny/Mertesacker out to the wing.

For QPR, they will be looking to build on a solid 1-1 draw against Everton. In that fixture Cesar had an own goal, an assist,   posted two saves and earned to bonus points. An interesting day for the ‘keeper. He hasn’t kept a cleansheet in four straight, after recording a 0-0 drawn in his debut against Chelsea.

Three Rangers have created 10 or more chances and not many of them are heavily owned in Fantasy Premier League, and none deserve to be at this time: Park (14), Granero (14) and Taarabt (12). The loan goal against Everton came from Junior Hoilett, his first in the BPL this term. We’re avoiding any QPR player until GW 10 when they start a three-game run that sees fixtures against Reading, Stoke and Southampton. One additional fantasy premier league note – Ji-Sung Park will need to pass fit before he plays. Before adding any of Mark Hughes’ squad ahead of GW10, check health, particularly with Park.

Captain choices: Santi Cazorla (8/10), Gervinho (6/10)

Reading v Fulham

Key Inuries: Karacan

The Royals will be up against a difficult opponent as Martin Jol has nearly a full compliment of players at his disposal for this fixture. Reading will like their chances of scoring one, and if that is the case then Pavel Pogrebnyak has to be the man tipped to score. Six Royals have scored in the Barclays Premier League this season with Pog and Hunt the only players to hit more than one. Hunt should be able to return from the knock that kept him out against Liverpool. Of course, the best Fantasy Premier League option is Jobi McAnuff.

McAnuff leads Reading with nine shots, one more than either Le Fondre or Pogrebnyak. He has created six chances and leads Reading with three assists. Danny Guthrie leads the squad with eight chances created but does not have a credited assist. Guthrie did earn 80′ after not playing in either of the two previous BPL fixtures. We expect this to end with goals on both sides an the four Reading players mentioned here are the only members of Brian McDermott’s squad we’re comfortable owning.  This side has been allocated a scant six bonus points this term: Hunt (3), Pog (2) and Kebe (1) are the only players to have earned any.

Of course, the Cottagers will have a number of better fantasy premier league options, chief among them Dimitar Berbatov. Berba has scored two goals this term, a brace in gameweek four against WBA. Sidelined with an injury, the striker posted 90′ against Aston Villa in Fulham’s 1-0 win but failed to find the score sheet. We still like Berba the most of any mid-tier striker and the best of Jol’s options. Mladen Petric and Bryan Ruiz returning to health strengthens Berba’s fantasy premier league potential and, while we like the other two players a bit, we would own Berba as a second or third striker and not bother with any other Cottagers attacker at this time.

There is one other Cottager we’re buying and he is a surprise Captains choice below. J.A. Riise has assists in three on the bounce, four on the season with three cleansheets and five bonus points. The £5.6m-rated defender is 11.3% selected and  his 39 FPL points have him fourth amoung all defenders.

Captains choices: Berbatov (7/10), Riise (7/10)

Stoke City v Sunderland

Key Injuries: Whelan; Brown

Glenn Whelan may be back after recovering from his hamstring injury. The £5m-rated midfielder hasn’t featured since the Liverpool match and has just two matches with more than three FPL points. We do not like him overly much and would prefer to use our funds of other Potters – namely Peter Crouch and Jonathan Walters. The £5.5m-rated Michael Kightly is another potential option, always popping up at the odd interval to record decent points. However, Kightly’s five consecutive returns of three or fewer FPL points should be enough warning that he is a fifth midfielder and no more.

10 – Stoke are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League matches at the Britannia Stadium since losing to Sunderland in February. Revenge.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 26, 2012

We do like Stoke to earn a draw or better with Sunderland 0-3-1 this term away from the Stadium of Light and having allowed six goals in those four matches.

Top Premier League Sniper

Sunderland did get a goal from a striker not named Steve Fletcher in their 1-1 draw with Newcastle in gameweek eight. Unfortunately for Demba Ba, Newcastle and Martin O’Neill’s thin strikeforce, it was an own-goal from the Magpies hitman that did the deed. Fletcher remains the only legitimate goal threat on a week-to-week basis for the Black Cats and the 10.4% selection for the £7.4m-rated forward is not unexpected.

Opta tells a dire tale about Sunderland’s offense this season. No player has created better than nine chances, with Seb Larsson (9), Jack Colback (7), Sessegnon (6) and McClean (6) the only members of the squad to create more than three chances. That means only Larsson has created more than one chance per BPL fixture this term. We’ve already covered that Fletcher is the only Black Cat to score a BPL goal and McClean, Gardner and Larsson are the only players with an Opta-credited assist — Fantasy Premier League tip: O’Shea (1) and Larsson’s 2nd assist are also credited in FPL.

Fletcher is a virtual certainty to earn the bonus points if he does score, and in this match we expect returns for the

Jane Doe

marquee players on each side with Crouch, Walters and Fletch leading the way. We are also completely off of last seasons breakout star, Stephane Sessegnon.

Captains choices: Walters (6/10), Crouch (6/10); Fletcher (8/10)

Wigan v West Ham

Key Injuries: Alcaraz, Miyaichi; Demel, Taylor, Vaz Te

Every week we write the same thing for Wigan, so feel free to read that in last Friday’s Tinkers. What we’re going to instead is a statistical recap of their season to date with Opta stats taken from EPLIndex.com. Ali Al-Habsi leads the team with 29 saves, no surprise there. In FPL the £5m-rated GK has one clean sheet and 31 saves. Emerson Boyce leads the defenders with eight chances created, Maynor Figueroa is second with six. Shaun Maloney (12) and Jean Beausejour (11) have taken 32 of Wigan’s 35 corners.

Up front, Arouna Kone and Franco Di Santo have taken 19 and 16 shots, respectively. Kone leads the squad with nine shots on target. Shaun Maloney is the only other player in the squad with at least 10 shots on target — he’s taken 11 with five on-target. Jordi Gomez has taken exactly 10. The side has had 13 clear-cut chances and scored four goals from those chances, squandering nine. Kone is most prolific for both, scoring two chances and missing a further four.

We’re investing in Kone, Maloney and Boyce and ignoring the rest.

West Ham have looked a solid side fit to retain their place in the Barclays Premier League. Their 4-1 win over Southampton was the largest margin for any BPL club in gameweek eight and goals from Noble (2), Nolan and Maiga show they are not reliant on Andy Carroll up-front to provide the firepower. With Guy Demel set to miss another match,

Top Scientists hypothesize “He’s Due”

we’re not too keen on their ability to keep the Latics from scoring, but believe the Hammers could well outscore the home side. While a 0-0 scoreline may be the final result, we’re of the belief that a 2-3 away victory for West Ham is on the cards. We continue to push for greater ownership of the £4.8m-rated Mark Noble who sits at 3.3% selection. Fantasy Premier League tips: when a player is priced below £5m and leads his team with an impressive 17 chances created (that’s more than Juan Mata has this season) he should be EVERY FPL players fifth midfielder. His 15 point outpouring, including a penalty goal that should secure he remains in line for future spot-kicks, has not seen his price rise a drop.

We touted Matt Jarvis last time, on the premise that someone would have to push the attack and we believe he did do that. The goals weren’t there, but he played a yeoman’s 90′. We continue to advocate owning the less expensive teammate (Ba over Cisse, Mata over Hazard, Rooney over van Persie) and it is no different here. Kevin Nolan may keep popping up at the right place, but it is Noble we would prefer to own for the long haul.

Call if a hunch — you should, it is — but we believe this is the match when the floodgates open for Andy Carroll. He got his first assist of the campaign in gameweek eight and over the last two matches he created four chances (all against Arsenal actually) and has taken five shots (though just one on target). So, very little statistical evidence that he is due, but if this match ends on 65′ and 83′ headed goals from the tall target-man, we would not be the least bit surprised.

Captains choices: Kone (7/10);  (Andy Carroll (8/10)

Man City v Swansea

Key Injuries: Zabaleta, Maicon, Garcia, Rodwell, David Silva; Taylor

If you’ve the patience to sit through it, Roberto Mancini’s presser is available here. If not, the relevant information is that David Silva is still injured. The Spanish playmaker has not recovered from the injury that forced him off against France. Pablo Zabaleta is out with a hamstring injury and Maicon, Garcia and Rodwell remain unavailable. James Milner will miss through suspension.

Given the volume of players injured, we expect to see more attacking players used with the potential of Aguero, Tevez and Dzeko all being drafted into the starting XI. We expect that Barry and Yaya will make up the defensive portion of the midfield and Samir Nasri is a mortal lock to earn playing time here. It certainly could be a start for Scott Sinclair, and if not now when? With key injuries and against his former club, the youngster will be looking to get the start, but that would still leave two — or possibly three attacking spots should Mancini use three defenders — and we could easily see Carlos Tevez moved into a wide attacking role in the 4-2-3-1 or alongside Dzeko and Aguero in a 4-3-3.

Swansea will also be playing in this match. We’re selling all of our Swans defenders and goalkeeper Vorm. We’re still

listing Neil Taylor as a key injury as it is six on the bounce without a cleansheet in BPL play for Swansea. We have said this since the start of the season – this is the week to sell your Swans. With City followed by Chelsea, Southampton, Newcastle, Liverpool, high-flying West Brom and Arsenal there is no reason to trust Vorm, Rangel, Williams or any of the rest of Michael Laudrup’s defense. Swans best hope will be to score early and keep the pressure on their opposition. Michu has scored in consecutive matches and seen his price rise to £7.3m after briefly dipping to £7.2m and he remains the best scoring option in this side.

We will continue to love Wayne Routledge. The £5.3m-rated midfielder is up to 13.0% selection and has three matches this season in which he’s scored nine or more FPL points. The downside, Routledge has two matches with one FPL point and a further two with two FPL points. He leads Swans with 21 chances created and is level sixth in the Premier League. He is hit or miss week-to-week but he has exceptional value and high potential as a fourth or fifth midfielder. His price and guaranteed playing time makes him an excellent choice in sides that invest heavily in forwards or defenders like Leighton Baines or Vincent Kompany.

Captains choices: Tevez (8/10), Nasri (8/10), Aguero (7/10), Dzeko (7/10)

Everton v Liverpool

Key Injuries: Fellaini; Reina

The Merseyside Derby will have the potential to jump-start Liverpool’s season as David Moyes’ side have to play without Steven Pienaar. Pienaar’s sending-off in the last match sees him miss, unfortunately, that may mean that no fewer than three first-choice players are absent at kickoff:

David Moyes: “Fellaini not definite, but has a good chance of being fit”. The manager is also hopeful on Hibbert but ruled Gibson out. #COYB

— Official Everton (@Everton) October 26, 2012

Liverpool put forward a good performance in their Europa League fixture on Thursday. They handed Anzhi Makhachkala a 1-0 on their trip to Anfield. That side features Yuri Zhirkov, Samuel Eto’o and Chris Samba and should not be discounted as an automatic victory. With Steven Gerrard getting the nod, Brendan Rodgers is obviously attempting to play his side into form. Brad Jones was in the Reds’ goal and youngster Raheem Sterling was rested for the first half.

Liverpool won this fixture 0-2 last season with late goals from Andy Carroll (71′) and Luis Suarez (82′). We have the feeling there is an unsung hero awaiting their emergence in this fixture, perhaps Leon Osman for the Toffees or another performance from Nuri Sahin like the 1 goal, 2 assists he posted in Liverpool’s 2-5 victory over Norwich.

Pepe Reina is back in training:

Pepe Reina is back in training at Melwood ahead of Liverpool’s trip to Everton on Sunday and manager Brendan Rodgers has revealed he will assess the ‘keeper’s fitness levels over the coming days to see if he can feature in the game. Reina sat out last Saturday’s 1-0 victory over Reading after sustaining a hamstring injury while on international duty with Spain.

It’s good news for Liverpool but Fantasy Premier League managers should wait to see how Pep is playing being considering adding the Spanish internaitonal to their squad sheet. One final fantasy premier league tip – bookings could well come into play here and players like Jonjo Shelvey and Marouane Fellaini may lose FPL points as a result:

20 – There have been more red cards in the Everton v Liverpool fixture than any other in Premier League history. Rivalry.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 26, 2012

No way to predict it accurately, of course, but something to consider before handing the armband to Luis Suarez (3 yellows this season).

Captain choices: Gerrard (7/10), Suarez (7/10), Jelavic (6/10), Osman (4/10)

Newcastle v West Brom

Key Injuries: Jones, Reid, Thomas

Demba BA! We genuinely like sound of that name. It should be sung out in gameweek nine and we believe that the Senegalese striker will be on-target with one.  Steve Clarke’s side should not be underestimated, however they have not kept an away clean sheet, posting a 0-2-1 away record with five goals conceded. After scoring 29 in 19 home fixtures last season, Alan Pardew’s side have four in four and have actually been outscored 4-5 in home League fixtures.

One thing to note, Cheick Tiote is suspended for the next three fixtures. We used Tiote as a cautionary tale when we wrote:

The Magpies midfielder was injured earlier this season and has completed the full 90′ twice. In his 274′ he has one assist and two yellow cards, leaving him with eight (8!) FPL points. Only 14 BPL players have received more yellow cards this season than Tiote’s two and most have played significantly more minutes.

He is now suspended and that could open the door for additional minutes for Gabriel Obertan who scored in the Europa League on Thursday.

Steve Clarke was busy on Twitter this Friday, letting all of @WBAFofficial‘s followers know that “Chris Brunt trained today and looked pretty sharp but it’s difficult to say whether he will be fit for Sunday”, “Steven Reid is much better this week than last but his hamstring injury has taken longer than we expected to heal”, and “Yacob trained today after struggling with a hamstring injury he picked up against Manchester City.”

Clarke did mention that “Jerome Thomas has trained well for the last ten days after a long absence” and Clarke could do with that bit of good news but Thomas has not featured in the BPL yet this term and we’re not looking to add him even if 100% healthy. For us, it’s still James Morrison, Shane Long and goalkeeper Ben Foster. Gareth McAuley has scored a goal and an assist this term and leads the Baggies defenders with 38 FPL points. He does not have much upside with his price already sitting at £5.5m in Fantasy Premier League. He has also recorded only 1 point in each of the last two BPL fixtures.

Captains choices: Ba (8/10); Morrison (6/10), Odemwingie (6/10)

Southampton v Tottenham

Key Injuries: Fox, Richardson, Ramirez, Cork; Assou-Ekotto, Dembele

Adkins says Gastón Ramírez, Frazer Richardson and Jack Cork still out injured. Luke Shaw and Danny Fox resumed training today. #saintsfc

— Southampton FC (@officialsaints) October 26, 2012

Southampton have not been kind to their best player. Rickie Lambert had four goals and an assist through five Premier League fixtures, making us look very smart in the process. He now has four goals and an assist through eight Premier League fixtures and experienced his first net transfers out since gameweek three. Spurs certainly are not impervious at the back and Lambert (14 chances created) and Adam Lallana (16 chances created) remain our favourites to produce for a side that has been held without a goal only once in eight BPL fixtures. However, the Saints four in three games since putting four past Aston Villa in gameweek five and it was defender Fonte scoing a brace in gameweek seven that accounted for both tallies in that one. While we love Lambert, and will start him here, it takes a braver sort than we to hand him the armband.

For Spurs, Defoe played the full 90′ in Europa League which would have us concerned if there was another option. Emmanuel Adebayor did not travel with the side and is dealing with a back injury leaving the England man alone in the chance for a starting spot. We expect to see Dempsey, Lennon and Gareth Bale lined-up behind Defoe.

While many are calling for Bale to run rampant after missing the last two matches, we’re hardly certain that the first week with one’s newborn is ‘rest’. Seems a good deal of the pundits are childless or left the care to another because one child in hand and we’ve not played a single match of professional football since. Granted, we’re not young, fit or Welsh and, given Ryan Giggs prolific career, we’re certain that last bit is the one which matters most.

Captains choices: Defoe (8/10), Dempsey (7/10), Bale (7/10); Lambert (6/10), Lallana (5/10)

Chelsea v Manchester United

Key Injuries: Lampard; Lindegaard, Vidic, Kagawa

The English core of Chelsea are set to miss out with John Terry suspended and Frank Lampard suffering a recurrence of a calf injury. Lampard was withdrawn after 18′ in the Champions League, replaced by Eden Hazard. Di Matteo appears to have settled on a small squad and Hazard, Mata and Oscar should all feature in this fixture. We still prefer Mata over Hazard based on price, though the Spainish midfielder is unlikely to score another brace this season, let alone in consecutive  fixtures. Keep in mind, Mata had 16 assists last season and his true value lies in his ability to create chances for the rest of the Blues potent attack.

Not much to add to Chelsea – you can read the full post here:

With Frank Lampard departing early with a re-aggravation of his calf injury there is a strong case to be made that Ramires/Mikel/Mata will make-up the middle “3″ with Hazard and Oscar pairing Torres at the front.

Manchester United had Shinji Kagawa pick up a knock that will rule him out for the next month. The Japan international was withdrawn after 45′ in the Red Devils’ Champions League encounter, a move which Sir Alex Ferguson has touted as opening the door for United to come back and win the match. Kagawa’s injury:

Ferguson confirmed the news at his press conference on Friday morning. ”Kagawa is out for three to four weeks with a knee injury. Playing on Tuesday (against Braga in the Champions League) didn’t help. It is disappointing,” the Scot said of the Japanese midfielder.

Chris Smalling is back in training, which could mean that Michael Carrick’s tenure as a center back is drawing to a close. With Ashley Young back, Wayne Rooney may be moved out of the midfield and into the front line. SAF could have a question of selection, not only for personnel but for tactics to accommodate his best XI. Rooney and van Persie may be paired with Chichirito in a front “3″. It is unlikely that Ferguson would elect to leave Carrick in defense with Rooney in the midfield as cover for the injured Kagawa as a  rested Rio should return to the starting XI.

Captains choices: Mata (7/10), Torres (6/10), Hazard (6/10); van Persie (8/10), Nani (7/10), Rooney (7/10), Rafael (5/10)

For more additional Fantasy Premier League tips, information, stats and analysis follow@FantasyGaffer.

Tweet

@fantasygaffer Berba or Defoe?

— Efan Yuliyanto (@efannafe) October 26, 2012

Would have answered this on Twitter, but I got distracted by your background. The answer is layered, a decent bit of complexity goes into it but at the end of the day we’ll take Defoe in the short term. The questions over Adebayor’s health and the recent comments from Andre Villas-Boas give us confidence to use Defoe until such a time as his production falters.

#THFC Defoe 676′ | Shots(On) 43(13) Goals 5 | Shooting Accuracy 43% | Chance conversion 17% | Chances created 10 Asst 2 | @eplindex — FantasyGaffer (@FantasyGaffer) October 25, 2012

That is the full story on Defoe. We still love Berba, and would not fault someone for starting a front line that included both strikers discussed here and each plays a promotion side that is generous with its concession.

@fantasygaffer 5.3m to spend on a defender to replace williams….thoughts?

— Chris Tasker (@AnglesGrindley) October 26, 2012

We certainly advocate selling Ashley Williams and any other Swansea defender or goalkeeper you may have on your roster. In Tinkers we will address the upcoming Swans’ fixtures and they are amoung the most difficult in which to maintain clean sheets. To answer the question – we would typically point in the direction of Fulham’s inexpensive defensive cadre. However, four of their next six are away from the Cottage. We would love to see the £5.2-rated Kolo Toure get a run of starts, but that is unlikely. Similarly, Arsenal’s Carl Jenkinson has a few difficult fixtures ahead and a returning Bacary Sagna to contend with. We are going to point to Liverpool’s £4.5m Andre Wisdom who played in the cleansheet on Thursday in the Europa League and has played 90′ in three straight including two cleansheets on the bounce.

@fantasygaffer fletcher or pogrebnyak in the starting XI? Have both — Imtiyaz(@mimtiyazudd) October 26, 2012

Fletcher is discussed at length in the upcoming Tinkers (as is Pog) but a few quick numbers for the Scotland international indicate all you need to know.: He is first in the Sunderland scoring table with five goals. Second in the table is Demba Ba with one. We like Pog for the money and believe he will finish the year with 10 goals, but Fletcher is the only scoring threat in the Black Cats attack at the moment and all of their energies should rightly be focused on putting the ball on his boot within shooting distance of the opposition goal.

@fantasygaffer Who should be my captain this GW? Ba, Cazorla, Baines or Jenkinson? — Daniel Sant’Anna (@tree_united) October 26, 2012

Number of questions every day has risen and we’ve altered Tinkers to include the most asked about, most likely, and a couple surprises suggested by Opta statistics beneath each match preview. Each included player is rated in terms of our confidence that he will be the ‘most valuable’ player to captain in the match. We’re not always right (last week we had Santi Cazorla rated highest) but those are our rankings. Eventually, there will be an update rank on this site from week to week, but for now this is the best we’ve got. For these four players, we’ve not ranked Baines or Jenkinson at all. Ba and Santi are both rated 8/10, level in our estimation. Personally, we’re giving the armband back to Santi this weekend in hopes he makes good on the promise he showed a week ago. Jenkinson is an interesting pick, but we’re not certain he even sees the pitch in this one.

For more check out @FantasyGaffer on Twitter and look to our Favourites on that site to find our most recent STATS tweets with Opta data courtesy of EPLIndex.com. Constant Fantasy EPL advice, even when you’d wish it would stop.

Tweet

Arsenal 0-2 Schalke 04

Arsenal sXI: Mannone; Santos Mertesacker Vermaelen Jenkinson (Gnabry 82′); Arteta Coquelin; Ramsey Cazorla Podolski (Arshavin 82′); Gervinho (75′)

The Gunners were under the management of Steve Bould as Arsene Wenger served the final match of his three-match touchline ban. Based on their play, it is unlikely The Prof’s presence would have made much difference. As Bould noted after the match:

Bould: ‘At West Ham I thought we looked really sharp. Since the internationals we have looked jaded. We have to pick it up again’ #AFCvSCH

— Arsenal.com (@Arsenal) October 24, 2012

He also rather astutely noted that the Gunners could do with the odd first-goal:

Bould: ‘Scoring first will be a major plus for us. We’ve got behind in [a lot of games] and to keep coming back is tough’ #AFCvSCH

— Arsenal.com (@Arsenal) October 24, 2012

The BBC has already written precisely what we were planning on discussing, so here it is from their match report:

[O]nce Schalke worked out Brazilian left-back Andre Santos was the glaring weak link in the Arsenal line-up, they probed ruthlessly and to great effect to end the Gunners’ 100% record in the competition.

Santos is not long for the starting XI with Kieran Gibbs due back following injury. The £5.7m-rated left-back is selected in 9.8% of Fantasy Premier League sides. EPL fantasy managers will not want him to miss the home encounter against Mark Hughes’ QPR side in gameweek nine as the Emirates has been a modest refuge for Arsenal this season. With only three home fixtures played in the League, Arsenal sport a 1-1-1 record with 7 for and 3 against. Gibbs has not played since gameweek seven and was part of the defensive unit that posted three clean sheets on the bounce to being the season. Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in five tries since, allowing six goals along the way. Wenger’s last note on the defender:

On October 19, Arsene Wenger said: “Kieran Gibbs is out for Saturday because he went off against West Ham. He’s not healed yet. He has a little chance to be ready for Wednesday and a bigger chance for QPR.”

Wenger has previously said that Theo Walcott could be in contention for the QPR match after suffering a chest and lung injury in a shock challenge over the international break. The England man has not agreed a new contract but Wenger should have reached a point of frustration with his other attacking options that introducing Walcott would be the rational decision. Oxlade-Chamberlain was lost to a hip injury and missed the Shalke fixture.

Ajax 3-1 Manchester City
Nasri 22′

Manchester City sXI:  Hart; Clichy Kompany Lescott (Kolarov 63′) Richards; Milner (Balotelli 77′) Nasri Yaya Barry (Tevez 71′); Dzeko Aguero

Arsenal’s loss may have hurt the Gunners chances of finishing top of their group, but they should still manage to qualify from the Group Stage. That is not the case for Roberto Mancini’s side who saw themselves rooted to the foot of the Group of Death and needing to win in three of the remaining three matches to have a realistic chance to qualify as Real Madrid’s loss to Borussia Dortmund saw the German side go top of Group D.

The interesting question will be what, if any, changes Mancini makes to his rotation. First-choice striker Aguero has not been able to propel City through the European competition and Carlos Tevez has shown better form in the league. Edin Dzeko could rest on his late brace in a substitute appearance in gameweek eight, but it is more likely the striker will simply build on his already impressive credentials as a super-sub.

In the short-term, with David Silva, Rodwell, Garcia and Milner all missing out (all but the last through injury, and the latter through suspension) it is possible that Aguero and Tevez could be deployed to the wings with Dzeko or Balotelli as the target-man. Certainly, both Argentine forwards have the skill on the ball to play a wide attacking role and Mancini will be expected to capture three points from the trip to West Ham.

That City again allowed opponents to carve through their defenses strengthens our position that EPL fantasy rosters are best stocked with midfielder and forwards, with EPL fantasy managers looking elsewhere to fill the ‘keeper and defensive needs. With 10.8% of FPL sides selecting Hart, 17.2% selecting Kompany, 9,7% Lescott and a further 8.1% Clichy, it appears our pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Our actually choice for a City defender would be Micah Richards — 0.6% selected, £5.8m — as the England defender is quick up the field and anxious to make an impact in the opponents third.

With three matches still to play, we’re expecting Mancini to play his strongest side in each until City are mathematically eliminated. Until that time, expect to see Dzeko getting more BPL minutes, perhaps with start this weekend a just reward for his five-goal haul in 281′ BPL this term.

For more fantasy EPL analysis, follow along @FantasyGaffer. EPL Fantasy managers can expect another post Thursday and Last Minute Tinkers on Friday as usual.

Tweet

Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Chelsea
Oscar 88′

Chelsea sXI: Cech; Ivanovic Cole Luiz Terry; Ramirez Lampard (Hazard 18′) Mata Mikel; Torres (Sturridge 70′) Oscar

Oscar netted the only goal for Roberto Di Matteo’s side. The late effort continued to build Oscar’s case for a continued run in the first team. With Frank Lampard departing early with a re-aggravation of his calf injury there is a strong case to be made that Ramires/Mikel/Mata will make-up the middle “3″ with Hazard and Oscar pairing Torres at the front.

Chelsea will be without John Terry again in gameweek nine as he continues to serve a domestic suspension. Gary Cahill was on the bench for the Champions League encounter but should return for the League fixture. The defender scored a screamer in his last start and remains one of the few defenders who will consistently attempt shots from long range. Chelsea’s schedule does not inspire much confidence in their ability to keep clean sheets and Manchester United certainly can score against anyone. 

Manchester United 3-2 Braga
Hernandez 25′ 75′ Evans 62′

Manchester United sXI: de Gea; Rafael Evans Carrick Buttner; Rooney Cleverley Kagawa (Nani 45′) Fletcher; Hernandez (Giggs 80′) van Persie

Key news from ManUtd.com following their victory included two absences from issue:

“Shinji twisted his knee,” revealed the boss. “We had to take him off. He struggled on for 20 minutes after he got the injury. We’ll assess it in the morning as it’s too early to say what the damage is.”

Kagawa is undergoing tests to determine the extent of the injury. His knock comes as Ashley Young has returned to fitness. Young was an unused substitute in this one. A bit of good news has the goalkeeper rotation at Old Trafford minimized for one gameweek, at least:

Anders Lindegaard will definitely miss Sunday’s Barclays Premier League trip to Chelsea to face Roberto Di Matteo’s table-topping team. ”Anders hurt his thumb on Sunday morning in training,” admitted Sir Alex. “He should be okay in a week’s time but he won’t be available for the weekend.”

De Gea has started four BPL fixtures as has Lindegaard. Fantasy EPL managers have chosen de Gea by a factor of ten over the other with 8% of fantasy EPL managers selecting the Spanish international while only 0.8% have selected Anders. They each have only one League clean sheet. With the net two fixtures Chelsea and Arsenal, we’re not excited to start either despite the clarification on role for the forthcoming week.

The other notes from this match are the goalscorers. With Jonny Evans finding another goal, he now has two in his last three fixtures. The defender was the subject of a note on ManUtd.com:

Evans, who is in outstanding form, bulleted home a header at Newcastle, was only denied by Asmir Begovic’s save from point-blank range last weekend and netted his first-ever senior Old Trafford goal on Tuesday night. As his opening Champions League strike was only his third for the club in 134 games, it’s fair to say he’s adding another string to his bow.

As we noted above, we do not trust a cleansheet in the coming weeks but Evans relative inexpensive price (£5.8m) makes him an interesting option. We are owning one of Rafael or Evans, though still giving the edge to the Brazilian.

Finally, a brace from Mexico international Hernandez has Sir Alex Ferguson discussing the option of starting Chicharito this weekend:

“Chicharito has given me a good problem,” said Sir Alex. “He’s got me thinking, I must say that. He and van Persie and Rooney and Welbeck… I don’t know what to do with them to be honest with you. The boy is improving all the time. He has a great enthusiasm for the game, he trains magnificently, he practices all the time and his goal ratio is fantastic. It was a great ball from Tom Cleverley for the second goal but Chicharito’s movement in behind the defender for the second goal was terrific.”

With Michael Carrick starting in defense and Wayne Rooney lining up in midfield, SAF is certainly juggling his personnel to find a healthy XI that can still return the full three points. Hernandez is priced £7.5m and selected in 0.8% of fantasy EPL sides. A run in the first team would make him an instant buy candidate as the youngster has proven his ability to score even in limited time. He has 10 goals in 1477′ last season and 13 in 1491′. He has just one goal but has received on 134′ of Barclays Premier League time. We expect he can score a goal every 100′ going forward this year, but we’re unable to predict when those minutes might come.

Elsewhere, Liverpool Echo is reporting that Jose Enrique is ready to fight for his place:

The Spanish full-back, who was sidelined for a month with a knee problem, returned to action as a second-half substitute in last Saturday’s 1-0 win over Reading. It’s been a frustrating campaign so far for Enrique who has slipped down the pecking order since Brendan Rodgers took over. However, he is in contention to start tomorrow night’s Europa League home clash with Anzhi Makhachkala and is out to prove that his strengths are ideally suited to the style the manager has brought to Anfield.

Liverpool have two defenders owned in more than 2.5% of sides and, remarkably, Enrique is still one of them at 3.3%. The £5.7-rated defender is owned in greater numbers than £4.5m-rated Andre Wisdom who has two clean sheets in his three outings. LFC face Everton, Newcastle, Chelsea, Wigan and Swansea in the next five and if Wisdom retains his place following Enrique’s return to fitness, we’re investing in the less expensive Reds defender over his more popular teammate.

For more fantasy EPL analysis, follow along @FantasyGaffer. Fantasy EPL managers are welcome to ask questions here, there, everywhere.

Tweet

@fantasygaffer Best att-mid combo at 13.9 for the next gameweeks? Was thinking Ba and Taarabt.

— Arne Barsnes (@ArneBarsnes) October 22, 2012

This was going to be a quick response, but 140 characters just were not enough to get everything across. We Take three separate approaches with a high/low split either way and an even allocation of the funds. First, high-end striker with a discount midfielder.

Ba (£8.3m, 30.8%) / Sterling (£4.9m, 11.3% selected)

We wanted to include Wayne Routledge here but the slate of upcoming fixtures for the Swans are difficult. Man City (a), Chelsea (h), Southampton (a), Newcastle (a), Liverpool (h), WBA (h), Arsenal (a), Norwich (h), Spurs (a), Man Utd (h). That takes Michael Laudrup’s squad through to Christmas. While Routledge will undoubtedly post a handful of decent outings, it will be difficult to determine which. If you’re using him as a fourth or fifth midfielder there is still a good argument to made for including him in your squad. He is level sixth in the Barclays Premier League in chances created with 21, the same number as David Silva and one better than both Gareth Bale and Steven Pienaar.

However, we’re going Raheem Sterling. The Liverpool youngster has created 16 chances — that is level with Juan Mata — and scored his first goal for the Reds in gameweek eight. Sterling benefits from playing in a side with Luis Suarez and Steven Gerrard (23 chances created apiece, level 3rd in the BPL). Despite the regular playing time, many fantasy EPL managers have not brought the winger into their squads and this is a good opportunity to add the future England star to your squad.

Demba Ba is owned in nearly 1/3 of every fantasy EPL side. This limits your ability to catch-up in the overall table, but Ba is on-form and  presents a solid value over the other forwards at the top of the scoring table. The Senegalese forward will not be departing in the winter after his national team was removed from Africa Nation’s Cup. His link-up with Hatem Ben Arfa, Yohan Cabaye and Papiss Cisse is established and three of his next four BPL fixtures are at home. Interestingly, Ba has scored in four matches, two one-goal outings at St. James and a pair of braces on the road — one each at Everton and Reading.

Lambert (£6.3m, 9.3% selected) / Lennon (£7.0m, 4.2% selected)

With eight Premier League fixtures between now and December 8, the Saints have one of the better slates for generating fantasy EPL points. Adam Lallana (16 chances created) and Lambert (14) are the two most creative players the Saints have and either or both belong in fantasy EPL sides over the coming two months. Home fixtures with Spurs, Swansea, Newcastle, Norwich and Reading are exceptional opportunities for goals and assists from the Saints dynamic duo. Their scheduled trips to West Brom, QPR and Liverpool may not be ideal, but still provide decent value. Lambert has taken 18 shots and scored four goals, one better than Carlos Tevez (18 shots, 3 goals) and level with Nikica Jelavic. He has only benefited from two clear-cut chances and that could rise slightly, providing Lambert with great scoring frequency.

We’ve considered Shane Long here but his scoring record away from The Hawthorns is not very good. He has three goals and three assists in 485′, but only one goal was in an away fixture  WBA play four of their next six BPL fixtures on the road — fixtures at Newcastle, Wigan, Sunderland and Swansea with visits from Southampton and Chelsea punctuating their travels.

We are actually looking strongly at Michu here. However, his 32.1% selection has us looking elsewhere. Aaron Lennon has a number of two-point outings but his contributions to the success of Andre Villas-Boas’ tactics. He has created 22 chances, the most of any Spurs player this term, and broke his duck with a goal against Aston Villa gameweek seven. We’re not going to lie, if Steven Pienaar had not been sent-off in gameweek eight, he would be our choice but he is facing a suspension and until he returns we can not advocate owning the Toffee’s play-maker.

Pogrebnyak (£4.7m, 8.5% selected) / Mata (£9.1m, 10.1% selected)

There is really only one option  for deeply discounted forward, Reading’s Pavel Pogrebnyak. Pog is a one-trick fantasy EPL pony. He scores on occasion and provides very little by way of creativity or fantasy EPL assists. He has two goals in 530′ and has remained on pace to break double-digit goals. Five two-point outings indicate that Pog is best used as a bench option and the extra funds freed by his acquisition provide the necessary capital to own enough midfielders to start five.

We like Juan Mata for as long as he remains at 9.1m. The brace in gameweek eight is obviously an anomaly for the Spaniard who scored six goals in 2516′ last term. Mata did assist 16 goals last season, and is on pace for more this term, in a Chelsea offense that appeared to be overly reliant on Mata. This season, Roberto Di Matteo has many quality attacking options at his disposal which leads to defensive difficulties for the opposition. With Oscar, Hazard and Torres all playing excellent football, Chelsea appears capable of scoring against anyone and Mata remains central to their prowess in the final third.

Mata has created 16 chances, leaving him well off the pace to break 100 chances created for a second consecutive season. However, the Spanish international is on-form and playing with the same level of professionalism and skill that he displayed in his inaugural season of BPL football. Fantasy EPL managers should note that he is already in the top five midfielders for Fantasy Premier League points. Other options, Yaya Toure or Samir Nasri are solid options particularly with David Silva’s injury looking to keep him out of next weekends match, are also worth looking at though Mata’s value is certain to continue to rise on the back of several top fantasy EPL outings.

For more fantasy EPL analysis, follow along @FantasyGaffer.

Tweet

Manchester United v Stoke City

The Red Devils will welcome back Ashley Young following two months on the sidelines with a foot injury. The trio of Young, Nani and Antonio Valencia will likely continue to rotate. While the offense is remarkably consistent, the plethora of attacking options make owning any of the midfielders a difficult proposition.

We’re not covering United in much depth because until we see the rotation of a fully healthy squad we can not handicap the value in FPL against playing time and price. Our love of Nani is well documented and we do not care to own Shinji Kagawa at this point in the season. Low cost options like Tom Cleverley provide an inexpensive route to playing a five-man midfield but frankly we’d prefer to start James Morrison, Matt Jarvis or Raheem Sterling. We’re fully in the Wayne Rooney camp and have moved off of Robin van Perise as the chances created by and provided to the Dutch playmaker are decreasing as the season wears on and he remains far off the pace set last season with Arsenal. That said, this is a good opponent, historically, for van Perise to score against, per OptaJoe:

6 – @persie_official has scored six goals in five Premier League appearances against Stoke City. Thorn.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 19, 2012

The Potters have nearly a full squad with only Glenn Whelan facing a late fitness test. The midfielder was injured before the break and missed out on Republic of Ireland’s World Cup qualifiers against Germany and the Faroe Islands. Michael Owen also faces a late fitness test but seems unlikely to supplant Peter Crouch at the head of Tony Pulis’ attack. The lanky forward has been exceptional this term with four goals and an assist. Crouch plays in an offense that runs through himself and Jonathan Walters and that means it will be feast or famine with the striker having three matches with 9+ FPL points and three matches with two FPL points. Fantasy Premier League tip is that the £6.7m-rated player is still owned in fewer than 10% of FPL sides (9.2%), the second-most of any forward priced under £7.0m — Rickie Lambert is priced £6.3m and 10% selected.

Against Manchester United we are benching, where ever possible, Stoke’s defenders and GK. The 18.2% of FPL managers who’ve selected Ryan Shawcross had hope they have depth in their fourth/fifth defenders and have not simply purchased their back line for the discounted price.

Captains Choices: van Persie (7/10), Rooney (7/10), Crouch (4/10)

Swansea v Wigan

Swansea will want to build on their 2-2 draw with Reading by getting the full three points this weekend. Fantasy Premier League managers have moved from Michu in modest numbers and the Spanish forward is regressing in price for the first time this season. At £7.2m and 31% selected he is higher priced and owned that Nathan Dyer. That may have been a problem earlier in the season but the Swans inability to rely on either Danny Graham or Luke Moore to provide goals may have manager Michael Laudrup pushing Michu further up the field. The key to Michu’s value is his goal scoring as he does not create enough, and Swans offense is too weak, to provide the level of assists required to post elite-level FPL points. He has a 15-goal campaign under his belt and could reach that mark this season if he is deployed as the second-striker. It is a reversal for our position, but we do believe in a tactical switch is coming. The rest of this side is not worth much in FPL, with the notable exception of Wayne Routledge.

Routledge has created 15 chances to lead Swansea and rate level-11th in the BPL, having created one more chance this term than Juan Mata. He has 41 FPL points, is priced a scant £5.2m and is selected in 11.5% of sides. There are a number of midfielders in a similar price but only LFC’s Raheem Sterling provides better value for the price in midfield than Routledge.

This is an important game for both sides with Laudrup and Roberto Martinez looking for a much-needed three points. While Swansea is likely to field an unchanged XI, the Latics have a few issues to resolve before kickoff:

Wigan will be without defender Antolin Alcaraz and winger Albert Crusat. The former has not played since the Capital One Cup win over Nottingham Forest at the end of August because of a groin injury and is likely to be out for another couple of weeks, while Crusat has a knee problem. Latics boss Roberto Martinez will also monitor Maynor Figueroa and Jean Beausejour closely after their long international trips with Honduras and Chile respectively.

We frequently end our section of Wigan by writing something to the effect of “Shaun Maloney (1o chances created), Arouna Koné (nine) and Emmerson Boyce (eight) lead the team in chances created and are the only three Latics we would trust. Despite our lack of faith, £5.4-rated Franco Di Santo continues to provide goals. His three goals are level with Koné for best in the squad but we continue to prefer Reading’s Pogrebnyak for similar production at a steeply reduced rate.”

Feel free to cut-and-paste that into our Wigan analysis until otherwise notified.

Captains Choices: Michu (7/10), Koné (7/10)

West Ham v Southampton

First up – the injuries, naturally:

Guy Demel (leg) and Winston Reid (back) are both facing races to be fit after being forced to miss out on international duty for Ivory Coast and New Zealand respectively. Joey O’Brien and James Tomkins are fit and standing by to come in, if required.  France midfielder Alou Diarra continues to be sidelined by a thigh injury.

Demel and Reid are the biggest questions with Fantasy Premier League with Reid (11.3%) and Demel (10.7%) among the most selected Hammers. 17.8%-selected goalkeeper Jussi Jaaskelainen will be without at least one of the defenders who’ve provided him ample cover this term. Hammers gaffer Sam Allardyce did not provide much clarity and it is best to presume neither play:

“We are OK other than the shock of Senegal versus the Ivory Coast in which we had two players involved in a horrific situation. One (Guy Demel) was injured so he didn’t play but they have both come back OK. Andy Carroll has got back and he is OK. Winston Reid did not get back until late on Thursday but he was called up despite being injured and had to fly 26,000 miles to not play. Everybody else is doing well. Our main problem is that Winston had a back problem before he left and we do not know how he has responded to treatment over in New Zealand. Guy has a thigh problem and will probably not be ready for Saturday and we have a few other injuries but internationals-wise they have come back OK.”

Jussi does lead the BPL with 32 saves (by Opta, FPL credits him with 28) and will likely need to significantly add to that tally to prevent the Saints from scoring here. We like Matt Jarvis over Mark Noble or Kevin Nolan as Ricardo Van Te’s long-term shoulder injury will necessitate one of the wingers pushing the attack in the final third and Jarvis’ skill-set fits the bill nicely. Andy Carroll does have one defender capable of matching height – Jos Hooiveld is listed at 1.93m while Carroll is listed 1.91m (both via espn.com player profiles).

The Saints Rickie Lambert had a dream match in gameweek seven. On paper. We should mention that dream match was on paper. Our paper. Instead it was defender Jose Fonte netting a brace with assists to Daniel Fox and Adam Lallana. Lambert posted two points and was withdrawn after 66′ with the Saints leading 2-0. They promptly surrendered the lead and could have used their most influential attacker in the later stages. We expect he’s back for 90′ and good for a goal in this one. Lallana remains a viable FPL midfielder with four assists including one in each of Southampton’s past three BPL fixtures.

As for jumping on the Fonte bandwagon, we would advise against it. In the previous six outings he recorded 1, 1, 1, -1, 2 and 1 FPL points.

Captains Choices: Jarvis (5/10), Lambert (6/10)

Norwich v Arsenal

Canaries are due for another difficult tilt with the Gunners set to start an attacking lineup filled with players who will press the attack in a similar style to Liverpool. Unlike LFC, we expect the Gunners to remain solid at the back and limit the chances for Grant Holt and Anthony Pilkington. Robert Snodgrass did not play in gameweek seven and may be dealing with an ankle injury. His absence makes it easier on Arsenal and if he was fit we would not start him as he will likely carry significant defensive responsibilities in this match.

Arsene Wenger is facing a few injury issues, but nothing that will impact the Gunners ability to score a bushel against the Canaries:

Theo [Walcott] is out for Saturday, for sure. He has an injury to his chest and lungs. We have to treat that clinically. It’s no major concern but it will take we think about two weeks to be back to a normal level. Kieran Gibbs is out for Saturday because he went off against West Ham. He’s not healed yet. He has a little chance to be ready for Wednesday and a bigger chance for QPR. Szczesny I think is two weeks away. Rosicky is still a few weeks away and Diaby as well.

These injuries have very little Fantasy Premier League impact as Walcott has not secured a staring role and the rest of the injuries are mostly long term. The loss of Kieran Gibbs is not a surprise, and we’re not selling him unless necessary, but he should recover and reclaim a starting role.

Elsewhere, Laurent Koscielny is reportedly absent while Bacary Sagna and Jack Wilshire still need more reserve team action before Wenger will consider re-introducing them in the first team. This all means that Per Mertesacker will be in the starting XI. The German scored his second goal in 84 appearances for his National team. Don’t count on offensive contribution but play the centre-back with eyes on a cleansheet.

We love Santi Cazorla, Gervinho and Olivier Giroud in this matchup. Santi given his role in the attack is our highest rated captains choice of the week with a 9/10 confidence rating. Giroud scored against Iker Casillas over the break and we expect to see him in the starting XI with Gervinho, Podolski and Santi Cazorla in the attacking midfield roles. It is possible that Oxlade-Chamberlain gets the nod, but we’re not investing in OX at this stage in his career.

OptaJoe validates our assesment:

9 – Santi Cazorla has scored more goals from outside the box than any other player in the top 5 European leagues since Aug 2011. Belters.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 19, 2012

5 – Norwich City have conceded the most goals from outside the box this season in the Premier League. Screamer.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 19, 2012

Captains Choices: Santi (9/10), Giroud (7/10) and Holt (3/10)

Sunderland v Newcastle

The Black Cats have one FPL player selected in better than 5.5% of sides – Steven Fletcher in 10.9%. The Black Cats have one player who has scored a goal in Barclays Premier League actions – Steven Fletcher who has netted 5/5 SAFC goals since joining from Wolves. The Black Cats have one player who has taken more than 10 shots (12 with eight on-target) and has scored a clear-cut chance (two such chances for two goals). It is the £7.4m-rated Fletcher who should be first name in your FPL squad sheet with only Seb Larsson and Adam Johnson in contention within the squad.

Only two Black Cats have posted better than 20 FPL points this term, Fletcher and ‘keeper Simon Mignolet (23) while Larsson’s 20 pace the midfielders. This is one of the few matches we would have considered but news from St. James is all positive for Alan Pardew’s side:

Captain Fabricio Coloccini is back in contention following a hamstring injury, while defender Steven Taylor and goalkeeper Tim Krul are also available for selection having recovered from respective calf and elbow complaints..

This is excellent news for Magpies and FPL managers alike. The return of Taylor and Coloccini should strengthen a depleted back line and Krul’s return will re-establish most of the foundation that posted 15 clean sheets last season. Newcastle has only one clean sheet to their credit this season and this will be a good test as they deal with one of the best out-and-out poachers in the game. Sunderland are also

Newcastle do have a midweek match in the Europa League and Pardew may elect to exercise caution with his trio of returning stars. We’re not ready to invest in Newcastle’s defense at this time but discount options Williamson and Tavernier have significantly less value moving forward.

This season Demba Ba has outshot Papiss Cisse 25:16, put more on-target 10:4, out-scored his countryman 6:0. Add to that, Ba and Cisse have each created six chances but Cisse is priced £9m in FPL. It is no surprise that Ba commands 30% selection while Cisse rests at 4%. We had Ba as a massive bargain before he went and scored five in three between gameweek four and six. As he approached £9m and is owned in nearly 1/3 of FPL sides, there is far less upside to owning the Senegalese forward. One positive, as we noted on Twitter, Senegal is out of the African Nation’s Cup and the Magpies duo will not be absent on international duty this winter.

Captains Choices: Fletcher (6/10), Ba (6/10), Ben Arfa (6/10)

QPR v Everton

This post has gotten far too long. Fortunately, these final two sides do not provide much by way of intrigue. We do not advocate owning any of Mark Hughes’ side with few exceptions. £6.4m-rated forward Bobby Zamora has scored three goals in 522′. Zamora is not inexpensive enough to sit and does not produce enough to warrant a place starting in a three-man front. We continue to point to Ji-Sung Park as an under-appreciated leading the squad with 13 chances created. FantasyGaffer favourites in Hughes’ side do not fare well (Shaun Wright-Phillips, Adel Taarabt) and Park is no different. We believe he will have three goals and 10 assists at the end of the season but those numbers will not make for interesting reading for most FPL managers.

Toffees are easier the other way. There are so many quality Fantasy Premier League options that it is hard to go wrong. One quick note:

NEWS ALERT: Marouane Fellaini to miss Everton’s game at QPR with knee injury.

— Official Everton (@Everton) October 19, 2012

We’re buying Steve Pienaar (20 chances created, level-fifth in BPL with Lennon and Bale) and Nikica Jelavic, selling Fellaini while he is injured and using whatever funds necessary for Leighton Baines. Baines is the designated penalty-taker and takes most of the free kicks from dangerous wing positions. We like Everton to draw a number of fouls in the match against a side that has 10 yellow cards and a dismissal. Everton have won 91 fouls (conceded 88) while QPR have concede 82. We infrequently captain a defender, but Baines 30 chances created and continued presence in the final-third have us believing he could be a valuable captain this week.

Captains Choices: Baines (8/10), Jelavic (7/10)

Part 1/2 available here. For up to date Fantasy Premier League tips  and analysis please follow us @FantasyGaffer, email fantasygaffer@gmail.com and check back to the site for updates every weekday.

Tweet

Tottenham v Chelsea

Tottenham Hotspur can cement their title aspirations with an emphatic home win over Chelsea. Andre Villas-Boas will have nearly all of his first-choice starting XI ready for action and leads his squad into the clash with the knowledge that both offenses are capable of scoring a handful in this match. The corresponding fixture last season ended 1-1 with a goal for Emmanuel Adebayor. At this point in the 2012-13 campaign it looks that Ade is second-choice behind the rejuvenated Jermain Defoe. Defoe has four goals and two assists in the BPL this season and has posted the minimum two points in Fantasy Premier League twice in seven outings. The England man has seen his price rise to £7.8 on the strength of 130,000+ net transfers in over the past three gameweeks and we expect to see his name once more penciled into the starting XI. 

These sides posses a number of top defenders with Chelsea’s Ivanovic and Cole among the most heavily owned in the game while Kyle Walker is owned in 14% of Fantasy Premier League sides. We’ve covered Walker in a “Most Creative Defenders” post at EPL Index and remain optimistic that the wing-back will finish the season in the Top 10 defenders for FPL points. He has already created 11 chances, the same number as Raheem Sterling, Moussa Dembélé and Robin van Persie.

We mentioned Roberto Di Matteo’s defense already, but it is worth noting that John Terry did not appeal the FA ruling and he will begin his suspension this gameweek. The former England man will miss the next three gameweeks and should be sold. In his stead, we expect to see Gary Cahill but we’re not investing in Blues defenders with their upcoming slate running: Spurs, Man United, Swansea, Liverpool, WBA and Man City.

In the midfield, Juan Mata has continued to show exceptional form and we’re selling Eden Hazard at £10.3m (with 42.4% ownership) to lock-in the profit and to find a lesser owned player moving forward. Mata is £1.4m less expensive, created over 100 chances last season and is selected in 6.5% of FPL sides heading into this gameweek.

Captain Choices: Bale (5/10), Torres (Confidence 3/10)

Fulham v Aston Villa

Good news for manager Martin Jol as both of his first-choice forwards are fit and expected to play this weekend:

The Manager could have something of a selection headache if the likes of Dimitar Berbatov and Mladen Petrić are fit again in attack, while Kieran Ricardson and Alexander Kačaniklić will be vying for a start on the left of midfield.

Berbatov is selected in fewer than 5% of Fantasy Premier League sides and is an excellent play this weekend despite having only just recovered from his injury.  Berba is one of the most creative forwards in the game and Jol may be without Bryan Ruiz, who departed after 45′ in the first Costa Rica international and did not play in his countries second game. The official  word from the Cottagers about it says “ Bryan Ruiz is a doubt for the Villa match with a groin issue” and he is listed as possible to play on their site. We covered the Fulham midfield at length in this post:

If Ruiz is going to miss any time with an injury, the door would have to remain open for Kačaniklić and perhaps increase the fantasy EPL value of Damian Duff in the short-term.

We like Fulham’s slate, with Villa followed by Reading and Everton, and are happy to own Hughes, Hangeland, Riether or Riise.

Paul Lambert has apparently sown a rift between himself and Darren Bent with the former England forward speaking publicly about his disappointment at losing the armband and his starting place. New arrival Christain Benteke has assumed the mantle and has played better for country than club:

Aston Villa’s Christian Benteke broke the deadlock for Belgium against stubborn Scottish resistance in Brussels as the home side eventually won 2-0. Benteke scored his second goal in four days on 69 minutes and the lead was doubled by Manchester City defender Vincent Kompany shortly afterwards.

The Belgium international has scored one goal in 267′ for the Villans. Benteke is not highly selected (0.1%) in Fantasy Premier League and does not deserve a place in your side until he posts better returns. Lambert’s side as a whole are infrequently selected in Fantasy Premier League with Ciaran Clark the most selected at 2.6% – and we suspect a bit of that is tied to his £4.4m price and not the 21 FPL points he has posted. Clark has the ignominious honor of posting negative FPL point in two of seven weeks.

Captain Choice: Dimitar Berbatov (5/10)

Liverpool v Reading

Brendan Rodgers could be without Pepe Reina and will be without Fabio Borini until the New Year. We covered Reina at length here, and he will face a late fitness test. Regardless of passing the test, we’re not interested in owning any of the Reds defenders or ‘keepers with the exception of Glen Johnson.

The loss of Borini is interesting for Fantasy Premier League managers who are looking to add Nuri Sahin. Sahin has played 65′ and 78′ in LFC’s last two Barclays Premier League fixtures and should see increased playing time. His FPL price of £6.8m is steep, but his positional ranking in midfield can be helpful is he is lined up alongside Luis Suarez in the front “3″. Speaking of Suarez, he is the now the second-most creative player in the Reds starting XI as captain Steven Gerrard has paced the Uruguayan with 21 chances created through seven fixtures. Gerrard is rather expensive at £9.4m, but his statistics indicate he is accurately priced on level with Gareth Bale or Santi Cazorla. We do tout the later duo far more than the Liverpool man and Gerrard is owned in 4.6% of FPL sides while Bale (17.1%) and Cazorla (17.8%) are widely selected. Liverpool are through the strenuous portion of their League schedule and this would be a good time to reinvest in Captain Fantastic.

Across the pitch are a collection of players we like more than their own gaffer. Danny Guthrie heads the list as he has not seen the pitch in League play since 22 September when he played 90′ against WBA. We do like Pavel Pogrebnyak for any FPL manager who is looking to play a two-forward lineup. £4.7m-rated Pog has posted four two-point outings. We simply can not advise starting him in any given GW and he presents no value apart from his goals.

No player in this side has created more chances than Jobi McAnuff’s six. That is poor when contrasted with the rest of the league but it does give a whiff of credence to his two-match assist streak. McAnuff has assisted four on the season and three in his last two.

Captain Choices: Luis Suarez (8/10), Steven Gerrard (7/10)

West Bromwich v Manchester City

The Baggies have a full compliment of players on the trainers table. Steve Clarke has a number of key absences and late fitness tests which will make the job all the more difficult come Saturday:

Clarke has revealed Youssouf Mulumbu is a doubt for Saturday’s clash with Manchester City (ko 3pm) after picking up a niggle on international duty. Chris Brunt and Steven Reid (both hamstring), Billy Jones (knee) and Boaz Myhill (thumb) all remain sidelined, while the game comes too soon for Jerome Thomas, who only returned to training last week following a minor knee operation.

The one bit of good news has Romelu Lukaku returning to training on Thursday and he may be fit to face City. The front pairing of Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie are first-choice, and rightly so, which limits the Belgian’s opportunities going forward. The player we’re most interested in is James Morrison. We’ve covered him at length and nothing has changes since we wrote this Fantasy Breakdown.

Perhaps the most important injury over the break was the hamstring injury suffered by David Silva in Spain’s 1-1 draw with France. The midfielder was withdrawn after 13′, replaced by Arsenal’s Santi Cazorla. Silva was a player we had targeted in the weeks leading up to the break as he began to earn full 90′ and appeared to have his fitness and quickness back near top levels. Silva’s price has continued to fall and his ownership is now 6.4% (6.6% Thursday) for the midfielder who earned 184 FPL points last term. City’s upcoming slate is a veritable feast of potential with West Brom, Swansea and West Ham lacking the quality necessary to contain Roberto Mancini’s explosive midfield. The injury may be a blessing as continue transfers out will see David Silva fall in price and could soon be less expensive than Steven Gerrard, Santi Cazorla or Gareth Bale. In his absence, we love the potential for Yaya Toure to play further up the field and for Samir Nasri to make more runs into the oppositions box.

The Citizens have yet to keep a cleansheet away from The Etihad and we’re still not investing in any of Mancini’s back line with the exception of Micah Richards who plays so far up the field he aught to be listed as a midfielder. There is more than enough rotation to go ’round and the only certainty appear to be Vincent Kompany, who is simply overpriced for his FPL return.

We did not include him in our Captains choices (though he’ll likely be one of the most captained or vice-captained players again this GW) and OptaJoe is bullish on Carlos Tevez:

5 – Carlos Tevez has scored five goals in four Premier League appearances against West Brom. Zippy.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 19, 2012

Captain Choices: Sergio Aguero (8/10), Yaya Toure (7/10)

Part 2/2 Available HERE. For up to date Fantasy Premier League tips  and analysis please follow us @FantasyGaffer, email fantasygaffer@gmail.com and check back to the site for updates every weekday.

Tweet