Cooper

, , , , , , , , , ,

Last Minute Tinkers | Fantasy Premier League Tips

In Sorted, Squad Sheet, Strategy on October 5, 2012 at 9:40 pm

Fantasy Premier League tips abound. Last Minute Tinkers is here to address all of your needs and provide tips and analysis for each Barclays Premier League fixture.  Back to two posts today as we look to focus ahead of the international break. We’ve written at length about the Champions League here and here and provided some helpful news about the site and an explanation of the new logo’s you’re seeing at the top of every post. Plenty of fantasy premier league tips to get to – so no further effort wasted. Part 2/2 available here.

Manchester City v Sunderland

Key Injuries: Garcia; Cuellar, Bardsley

Difficult to pick against Manchester City in this match as Roberto Mancini’s squad have been able to score nearly as liberally as they’ve conceded. The question is whom from the squad should be trusted this weekend and can fantasy premier league managers dare hand the armband to one of them? One interesting note, as we continue to preach patience with Carlos Tevez and note his value in relation to Kun Aguero is tied to price. It is also tied to playing time, of course, and OptaJoe has a word in edgewise:

This is not to wholly discount the younger Argentine as we have seen full well what he can accomplish in the minutes he does play. It is simply a reminder to look a the complete picture when evaluating a player. For example, David Silva (£9.6m, 7.1% selected) and Samir Nasri (£8.3m, 5.4% selected) have played 363′ and 341′ respectively this term. Silva has provided two assists while Nasri has not recorded a goal or an assist since he pocketed one of each in gameweek one. However, David Silva is third in the Premier League with 18 chances created while Nasri sits level-14th and third among City players with 12 chances created. Both should be owned well in excess of their current numbers by fantasy premier league managers who make selections based on future results and not past returns.

The Black Cats will have Adam Johnson back to face his old club but will be without Lee Cattermole (suspension) and Phil Bardsley (injury). The question of Carlos Cuellar has not been answered and the answer could prove important:

Martin O’Neill is hoping to have Carlos Cuellar back in action soon after the Spanish defender returned to training. O’Neill said: “Carlos trained this morning and is certainly looking better than he did last week.”

Thanks for that. We’re still looking primarily at Steven Fletcher and not much else. Johnson (£7.0m, 1.6% selected) could become an interesting buy with a solid 90′ injury-free this weekend. Stephane Sessegnon could use the help, and perhaps the competition, as he looks to regain the form which saw him record seven goals and 12 assists in 3125′ last term. He has not recorded a goal or assist in 395′ of the 2012-13 Barclays Premier League season.

Chelsea v Norwich

Key Injuries: Sturridge; Bassong, Pilkington

Juan Mata is back. The Spaniard added to his reputation with a brace against FC Nordsjælland in the Champions League —  he has scored three goals in his last three games and played in both the midfield and attack “3″ for Roberto Di Matteo. There should be little question of his ability to produce for FPL managers. Last season Mata was one of only two Premier League players to create better than 100 chances (David Silva) and he tallied six goals, 16 assists in 2516′ for 162 total points in Fantasy Premier League. There is no reason to not own him. The question appears to be should he be owned OVER Eden Hazard.

Hazard is level with Juan Mata in chances created this term (11) and we’ve discussed this at length here. In which we wrote:

Mata’s first goal was more a product of good play from Torres (who won the ball in the attacking third with an excellent challenge) and Lampard (who’s well-weighted ball put Mata clear through on goal), but Mata still took his chances well and was involved in the build-up and the scoring. At £8.8m, Mata is deeply discounted from Hazard (£10.3m) and is worth owning.

We have also discussed both midfielders here. For his own sake, Mata has a few interesting words:

Mata’s form almost demands the number 10 role behind Fernando Torres but he was more than happy to play either side of that. “At the moment I’m playing right side, which is good because it means I can cut inside on to my left foot,” he said. ”When I play in the three behind the striker, I can look for freedom with the ball and help defending without the ball. It’s important for all three of us to keep our positions.”

If you’re looking for a Captain with the higher potential, we still feel it is the Belgian over the Spaniard – but if you have both you’re spoilt for choice.

Last week we wrote some very unflattering things about Norwich. Liverpool went out and put five past them while the Canaries scored two from Holt and Morison with assists from Martin and Howson. There is not much else to discuss on this side and their schedule does not get easier after the break as Arsenal await in gameweek eight. Please do not start any Canaries defenders and the only midfielder we’re owning in any capacity, likely as an unused fifth midfielder and he is too expensive to justify owning in that role, is Robert Snodgrass. Snodgrass (13 chances created) and Holt (10 chances created) are performing well above the level of their team as a whole and both will finish the season with better FPL point totals than you will remember them having earned. Fantasy Premier League Tip: it is hard to remember what 200+ players do each week, trust the numbers!

Swansea v Reading

Key Injuries: Taylor; Federici

Many may think it is foolish to continue to keep Neil Taylor in the “Key Injuries” as there is no chance he returns for months. But the poor defensive record indicates the Swans clearly miss both Taylor and last seasons on-loan star Steven Caulker. The defensive potential no longer remains for Angel Rangel and Ashley Williams may miss this weekend as well:

Swansea manager Michael Laudrup is hopeful that defender Ashley Williams will have recovered from a bout of illness to captain the side against Reading. Williams has been playing with an ankle injury for the last two matches and if he is not fit to play, Laudrup could turn to Garry Monk or Alan Tate for the Barclays Premier League game.  Dutchman Kemy Agustien is out as he recovers from a calf injury.

The defender replaced Aaron Ramsey as Wales captain and congratulations are certainly in order:

The 28-year-old Williams, who has captained his country four times, will take over for the World Cup qualifiers against Scotland and Croatia.

In gameweek three we begged fantasy EPL managers to sell Michu. We were wrong, he went out and posted seven points, scoring a goal in the Swans 2-2 draw with Sunderland. Sadly for fantasy managers, we were simply one week late. Michu has collected four paltry points in his last three Premier League matches and is going to see his price fall fast. There were -61093 net transfers last GW, and his price now sits at £7.3m. We expect it will be dropping further following the Reading fixture. Michael Laudrup’s side have not scored a goal in three on the bounce in the League, while allowing seven goals to Aston Villa, Everton and Stoke.

Image via Zimbio.com

The Royals attack does not have the quality of the Villans, Toffees or Potters and do not have a single player in the Top 50 players for chances created.  Unfortunately, minutes after we touted Danny Guthrie as a solid buy for your inexpensive fifth midfield spot, he was dropped for the firs time this season. His price, £4.4m, is low enough to have him held in reserve, but we can not trust he plays and must leave him on the bench. Further, no Reading player has scored more than one goal in the Premier League this season. We still trust that Pavel Pogrebnyak will be the most valuable player at the end of the season on the strength of nine goals. We thought he’d have hit 10, but the pace has fallen off considerably and this side does not look capable of providing one player with consistent opportunities each gameweek.

West Brom v QPR

Key Inuries: Myhill, Jones, Ridgewell, Reid, Brunt; Ferdinand, Traore, Bosingwa, Fabio, Diakite, Johnson

We expect that Liam Ridgewell is back in the starting XI, rejoining Peter Odemwingie in Steve Clarke’s first-choice sXI. Fantasy premier league tip to purchase Romelu Lukaku during Odemwingie’s absence netted early returns — he scored in 77′ against Reading on Sept. 22 but earned just 19′ the following match. Shane Long played 26′ against Reading, assisting Lukaku’s goal, and 71′ with a goal in gameweek six.

Long has scored two goals and two assists but has not played the full 90′ in any of his six BPL appearances this term. He is, by far, the best value of the current Baggies as he is priced the least of the Odemwingie/Long/Lukaku trio with a Fantasy Premier League price of £6.0m. Of course, QPR have picked this XI for Steve Clarke ahead of this weekend’s action:

West Bromwich Albion – Likely Starting XI (4-4-2) … Foster; Tamas, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell; Morrison, Mulumbu, Yacob, Gera; Lukaku, Long.

In addition to the six names listed above (Ferdinand, Traore, Bosingwa, Fabio, Diakite), R’s gaffer Mark Hughes will also be without DJ Campbell who joined Ipswich on loan. He and Jay Bothroyd are both on-loan and this leaves Bobby Zamora and Djbril Cisse without much competition for first-team duties. Zamora has been lethal on clear-cut chances this season. All three of his goals have come from such chances ,and he has scored on three of four clear-cut chances this term. QPR still look a shambles but Zamora will get minutes and chances. He does not create chances the way Rickie Lambert does, but for a comperable price (£6.4m) he will return goals and not much else. If you play in a league that mandates owning a Ranger – it should be Zamora.

The injured cadre of defenders have different levels of fitness ahead of this one:

The 48-year-old admitted he is unlikely to have injured Fabio da Silva, Anton Ferdinand and Jose Bosingwa back in time for the trip to the West-Midlands and after conceding 13 goals in six games so far this season, he’ll be hoping the injuries don’t mount as speculation surrounding his position does. The West-London club are yet to win a game in the Premier League this season.

Wigan v Everton

Key Injuries: Alcaraz; Hibbert, Gibson, Naismith

The Latics are not providing much in the way of fantasy premier league tips or tats or points. We wrote it last weekend and we’ll write it again this week – Shaun Maloney (9), Arouna Koné (7) and Emerson Boyce (7). They all rate in the Top 50 in chances created this season and provide decent value based on current Fantasy Premier League prices. Wigan have kept one clean sheet in six tries, been held without a goal in three matches and scored a brace twice. Koné, £6.5m, and Di Santo, £5.5m, each have two goals but face a potentially difficult slate of opponents in their next four: Everton, Swansea, Aston Villa and Tottenham.

This Tweet concisely sums up our admiration for Leighton Baines:

Nikica Jelavic surprised us by returning to form immediately following his return to fitness. The big forward scored twice and assisted a goal to provide 16 FPL points in 75′ for owners who had kept him. He is currently 7.4% selected following three straight weeks of negative net transfers out and is playing remarkable football. His presence does diminish the potential value of Maroune Fellaini as the Belgian should retain a more midfield role in this fixture. However, having forwards firing on all cylinders is a good thing for team performance and we’re confident in starting any or all of Baines, Jagielka, Fellaini, Pienaar, Osman, Miralles and Jelavic. If you own Tim Howard and are not starting him against the Latics, you should reevaluate your need to keep a £5.6m-rated second ‘keeper in your side. There are a handful of better match-ups to be had but unless you’re deciding between Howard and Vito Mannone, it is likely Howard is too expensive a luxury. Am I now forced to make a Gangnam Stlye reference?

Worth noting here, we may be alone when it comes to the re-positioning of Maroune Fellaini. The excellent Luke O’Farrell writes:

Featuring in a more advanced role this season, Marouane Fellaini makes it into the Top 15. Having grown accustomed to a central midfield role, he is re-establishing himself in the role vacated by Tim Cahill. With a return of 12 chances, one assist and three goals, he is definitely staking his claim.

Forward Nikica Jelavic also features in the Top 40 of the creative players list. Creating nine chances, the Croatian is proving there is more to his game than goals. With Leon Osman narrowly outside the Top 50 and others hitting form, Everton players may fill more creative places in the near future.

From Dark Horses Everton Lead The Way by O’Farrell for EPLIndex.com. Solid read and contains quite a bit of fantasy premier league tip-style information by way of the highly relevant and well presented Opta stats included.

Quick injury notes directly from the source:

West Ham v Arsenal

Key Injuries: Reid, O’Brien;  Szczesny, Fabianski, Diaby, Walcott (pride)

The Hammers got Andy Carroll back last match, had a goal from Matt Jarivs as he was selected in the first-choice XI and had Ricardo Vaz Te continue to shine. This is a side that looks capable of taking a point off of anyone on their day, but we’re simply not trusting the defense moving forward. With Arsenal, Southampton, Man City and Newcastle over their next five gameweeks, defenders like Guy Demel can be owned as bench options but should not be trusted to start when finalizing squad sheets.

Arsenal has dealt with a bit of flu and a number of key, or should-be key, players have been dealing with it including Vermaelen, Walcott and Coquelin:

It is flu that has travelled from body to body. We have had Coquelin, Vermaelen, Walcott out. But nobody else has it at the moment.

We’ve made light of Walcott’s illness, but his pride has to be taking a beating as he has fallen behind all of the new arrivals (with the possible exception of Olivier Giroud) and Oxlade-Chamberlain. With Abou Diaby out, it is Coquelin who played midweek. Read our Champions League Recap for more on the situation. Per Mertesacker is also carrying a knock:

He is better. He came in on Thursday and had a little session. He’ll have a test. It is not certain that he will play.

Finally, Bacary Sagna is nearing fitness and will get a possible U-21 appearance:

Maybe he will play on Monday night [for the under-21s]. He needs some games because he has not played for five months. He has been in training for a week now so he should be capable of playing for an hour. He is better. He came in on Thursday and had a little session. He’ll have a test. It is not certain that he will play.

Gervinho lines up a shot.

Gervinho is, well, much better of late than in all his previous appearances for Arsene Wenger’s Gunners. The Ivorian has scored five goals on five shots. That is simply a silly record. However, he is being deployed as a striker and that can not be ignored. For £7.4m any FPL manager can own the most forward player in the Gunners potent attack, with the added benefit of slotting him into the FPL midfield. Gervinho may not, well will not, continue to score on every shot. But a slight increase in shots could see his accuracy fall to 50% and allow him to maintain a solid scoring record moving forward. We do still believe that Giroud and Theo Walcott eventually feature in this side, but a short term addition of Gervinho ahead of matches with West Ham, Norwich and QPR is odds-on to provide value.

 

Part 2/2 Available To Read Here (will link later).

For up to date Fantasy Premier League tips  and analysis please follow us @FantasyGaffer, email fantasygaffer@gmail.com and check back to the site for updates every weekday.

Tweet

  1. Love the Gervinho Monty Python reference. He is such a weird player to watch at times; capable of stunning moves and so quick but seems to have the first touch of a cart horse at times and mostly picks the wrong options.

    Gummi 6 October 2012 at 10am

Comments are closed.