There will be two posts with Transfers In. The first will be the transfers that occurred between teams in the Barclays Premier League. These players were already registered with the league and have prices within the Fantasy Premier League. The second will come following the addition of the new players to the Fantasy Premier League game. As always, price and selection data are via Official FPL, and we make no representation of ownership of that data – just our discussion. All prices and selection current as of publication: 2 September, 2012.
Dimitar Berbatov (£6.9m, 1.7% selected)
The Bulgarian looked his usual self in the second 45′ gameweek three. He got his debut out of the way, created five chances, gave the appearance of putting in no effort while being the most influential player on the pitch and should be able to fill the recently departed Dempsey’s boots. His ownership is going to skyrocket shortly. While we’ve been typing this paragraph he moved from 1.6 to 1.7% selected. Berbatov will score goals. He will score them in bunches, and bushels, and barrels. He will also have many weeks where he does not score any fantasy premier league points. If you’re going to invest in him, and there is no reason you can not have a front line of Van Persie, Tevez, Berbatov, do it at the earliest possible time. Keep in mind, the season Berbatov won the Golden Boot he scored 21 goals in 2208′. Last season he scored seven goals in 521′. That is 28 goals over his last 2729′ – one goal every 97′. If you want to add his scoreless 45′ for Fulham it’s a goal every 99′ – so, you know, he’s “due” for one now.
The reason for Berbatov’s immanent selection and price ascension is scheduling. Over the next four gameweeks the Cottagers face West Brom, Wigan, Manchester City, and Southampton. The best defensive team in that stretch are the Baggies. We love what they’ve achieved, and Steve Clarke has his boys playing solid defense without sacrificing their attacking edge, but Berbatov remains capable of notching a brace against any opponent. With the return of Bryan Ruiz in the attacking midfield, together with Petric and Rodallega, Martin Jol has any number of attacking options but the Bulgarian possesses the most professional skill in front of goal. Provided he remains healthy, a 15 goal campaign should be within his reach.
Kieran Richardson (£5.5m, 0.6% selected)
Richardson is simply not a valuable fantasy premier league asset. He has played more than 2000′ minutes in each of the past four seasons and has recorded 11 goals and nine assists in those seasons combined. There are many good fantasy premier league investments that can be made in the Jol’s side, we will look elsewhere.
Scott Sinclair (£6.8m, 7.9% selected)
While reading this assessment, please feel free to use it as a template and substitute the following words: Moses for Sinclair; Chelsea for Manchester City; Wigan for Swansea; bench for bench.
Two of our favourite targets in the 2011-12 Buying Guides have moved from clubs which provided 90′ a week into sides where they are more likely to make 30′ substitute appearances. This season’s Buying Guide touted each as a good bets to reach their opening prices, but unlikely to exceed them. Given the likely loss of playing time, after moving to more talented and deeper clubs, and his current price, Sinclair can not be owned. Victor Moses (£6.7m; 4.6% selected) is marginally better value because he faces direct competition from only Fernando Torres and Daniel Sturridge. Based on reports, it appears that Roberto di Mateo is planning to utilize Moses as a striker, though the current attacking climate at Stamford bridge sees any number of midfielders used in the front “3″ of their modified 4-3-3.
We’re not begrudging Sinclair the move. Certainly the prospect of playing Real Madrid is enticing, the money is enticing, the crowds and fame and all the rest, enticing. However, a season ago he posted 151 points in Fantasy Premier League playing for Swansea. He scored eight goals, five assists and 13 bonus points. Playing for Manchester City, and particularly the current incarnation of Roberto Mancini’s Man City, Sinclair will not see enough time to match last season’s production. He needed every one of his 3120′ to reach the 150 point plateau. With the lineup ahead of him, the best we can expect for Sinclair following his move would be to match James Milner’s 2011-12 season: 1586′ with three goals and five assists. Milner is currently priced £6.3m, with 0.9% ownership. And, until Sinclair’s price hits that level, we’re staying away.
Harry Kane (£4.5m, 0.6%)
If there was ever a forward who could challenge our blind love of Steven Fletcher, Harry Kane is that player. He has scored on loan before, netting eight in 23 for Milwall and five in 18 for Leyton Orient. Sadly, we believe that Kane will not be judged up to the challenge of leading the Canaries line, and will instead be relegated to late substitutions. There is nothing preventing Kane from having a Fletcher-like season as a super-sub. Fletcher did score 10 goals in 1395′ during the 2010-11 season. Kane has the ability, and could have the opportunity, to be on the pitch 1400′. The question will be if you are the type who is willing to start a front three every gameweek and deal with several successive 1pt performances. Personally, we use three forwards every week and rely on steady minutes and a particular set of skills that manifests in a lethal combination of goals and assists. Our approach led us to investing early in Adebayor a season ago, taking Tevez to open the season this year, and to continually bemoan the lack of assists generated by Darren Bent. In the current game, the price difference between the £4.5m rate Kane and the £4.9m rated Pogrebnyak is no enough to forgo the upside provided by Pog’s name in the starting XI every week.
Charlie Adam (£6.8m, 1.4%)
Following Adam’s transfer to Stoke his price in the Official Fantasy Premier League actually fell £0.1m. Similar to Adam Johnson at Sunderland, some of Charlie Adam’s value will be reduced based on the presence of incumbent players. In Adam’s case, this is Jonathan Walters. Walters took and scored the penalty this past weekend and should continue to take spot kicks moving forward. In 2010-11 Adam converted a number of penalties and converted seven of his eight clear cut chances into goals. He scored 12 goals that term, and added nine assists, but discounting the penalties he would not have been half as impressive. Adam had two goals and 11 assists last season, and another season in line with his 101 Fantasy Premier League point haul is in the offing now. Should he assume free kick and/or penalty duty Adam’s value would immediately increase. In 2010-11 he returned 192 Fantasy Premier League points.
Danny Rose (£4.5m, 0% selected)
The presence of Rose does provide depth and competition in the Black Cats midfield, but we’re not investing, even at the heavily discounted price.
Steven Fletcher (£7.0m, 0.9% selected)
We did not get up a post about Steven Fletcher prior to his outstanding debut and for that, we apologize. Not to our readers – we send our deepest apologies to Steven Fletcher. We still love you. It was a love affair that started last season:
We still love Steven Fletcher. And he’s back fit.
And one we’ll continue this season. The presence of Saha, Campbell, Ji, etc. will not impact Fletcher’s playing time and the presence of Adam Johnson together with Stephane Sessegnon means that there will be volumes of quality service. The Scottish striker has scored 12 and 10 goals in each of his last two campaigns and has already notched two this term. Sunderalnd’s stats from the match against Swansea were not pretty. Despite fielding Seb Larsson, Sessegnon and Johnson – a trio of quality midfielders – Sunderland held the ball for only 36.1% of the time. They did move quickly, completing 282/352 passes – 80% – but were effectively smothered in the attacking third. The team created two chances, one from Sessegnon and one from Colback. And they had only four shots, the two from Fletcher both finding the back of the net. The only question will not be price, but that Sunderland face Liverpool, another possession team, after the break. Fletcher and Co. will have to take every chance to retain value in fantasy premier league.
Adam Johnson (£7.0m, 2.5% selection)
Like Fletcher, Johnson did not make his move on Deadline Day. However the former City winger is too important to ignore. The Black Cats have built a quality side, but one that struggled to retain possession against Swansea on Saturday. Johnson’s price is also a potential stumbling block. When you consider his potential next to other players in his price bracket – Michu, Fellaini, Pienaar, Lennon – Johnson rates well. The simple fact is, Michu will not continue his torrid pace. However, the most valuable midfielders are those who play the furthest up the field. In that regard, Michu and Johnson are similar players. We expect that Johnson and Sessegnon will be used in attacking roles with a single forward – Fletcher – used as a target man. At this point, we remain more willing to invest £7.9m in Sessegnon, or £7m on Fletcher, but Johnson should be watched carefully with one eye on investment following the GW4 fixture against Liverpool.
Clint Dempsey (£9,3m, 2.5% selected)
To recap: Dempsey scored 17 goals with seven assists last season for Fulham. He played 3324′ and tallied more than 20 Fantasy Premier League bonus points for his second consecutive season. With Dempsey’s transfer to White Hart Lane, we can not expect more of the same. Andre Villas-Boas may have installed new tactics but the fact remains that Emmanuel Adebayor will eventually be named the starting forward and he had 17 goals of his own last term. Ade also contributed 12 assists over 2827′. He, not Dempsey, will be the poacher and responsible to holding up the ball inside the box. This side may boast the most potent offense in the Premier League, it is certainly one of the top sides, with Gareth Bale and Gylfi Sigurdsson set to play alongside the American talisman in the Spurs midfield. With Adebayor (or Defoe) ahead and Dembélé paired with Lennon or Sandro behind, Dempsey should continue to enjoy a role similar to his days at Craven Cottage with a decrease in goals and perhaps a slight increase in assists.
Moussa Dembélé (£6m, 6.3% selected)
You may have heard, we love Moussa Dembélé. Our concern for the Belgium international is lack of chances. Often relegated to playing a deeper midfield role as Dempsey and Murphy roamed free up the pitch for Fulhma, he now has Bale, Dempsey and Sigurdsson playing in the attacking roles. Our argument for Dembélé is simple – if you would buy Yaya Toure for £8.1m you should consider Dembélé for £2m less. Search Dembélé on our site you’ll find all the information you need to know about his play-making ability.
The caution for Dembélé is that in 2936′ he had two goals and three assists for Fulham. However we believe that he will be more prolific at White Hart Lane and underlying statistics suggest he can score at least five (he already has one) and assist on seven or more goals. Last season, in 2643′, Yaya Toure scored six goals and had nine assists. That type of season is clearly within Dembélé’s expected outcomes and we’re standing by the midfielder until proved otherwise.
Yossi Benayoun (£6.3m, 0.1% selected)
For a second consecutive season, the Chelsea midfielder has gone out on loan. Last season he played only 906′ in the Premier League but was lost in the midfield shuffle at the Emirates. This season he heads to West Ham where he will look to solidify a first team place. It should be noted: the last time he played more than 2000′ was the 2006/07 season. He is a decent bet to score and handful, and a likely bet to assist on a handful or more. However, Yossi’s arrival does spark the question of where he plays. West Ham have Mark Noble, Kevin Nolan and Mohamed Diame entrenched in the side as well as recent addition Matt Jarvis. Jarvis missed the sides 3-0 win over Fulham, a game in which his replacement, Matthew Taylor scored once and assisted another. For the price, we would rather own most of Banyoun’s new teammates.
Andy Carroll (£8.4m, 1.3% secletedl)
We’ve included Carroll because we never had a previous chance to address his move, a season-long loan with WHU holding option for permanent transfer at season’s end. Of course, in the interim, he got a start and left injured. He hobbled off he pitch moments before he was sent to be substituted and faces a few weeks out. The initial reports have Sam Allardyce saying “[the injury] looks like a hamstring which is obviously the most disappointing thing from today.”
Priced £8.4m, Carroll is priced higher than any other Hammer by a staggering £2.1m. This side does boast a former Premier League 12 goal-scorer, and former Geordie teammate of Carroll, in Kevin Nolan. We rather expect that Carroll will play the foil more than the poacher. In his opening match for West Ham, the England international was a constant threat and drew multiple markers, opening the space that allowed Winston Reid to head home a Taylor corner kick. For tall strikers, we’d much prefer to own Stoke City’s Peter Crouch. Priced £6.5% and 4.4% selected, the Potters striker has two 10-goal campaigns to his credit and added five or more assists in five of the last six season.